半导体库存追踪：高库存水平正在下降-Semiconductor Inventory Tracker_ Elevated Levels Coming Down

Summary of Semiconductor Inventory Tracker Industry Overview - Industry: Semiconductors in North America - Current Status: Elevated inventory levels are being managed with a shift towards leaner strategies by customers and distributors, while producers are holding more inventory in anticipation of demand recovery [1][3][8]. Key Points Inventory Levels - Overall inventory levels remain elevated but decreased in Q2, with customer and distributor inventory declining more than seasonal expectations [3][12]. - Days of Inventory (DOI) across producers, distributors, and customers decreased by 5 days, more than the expected seasonal increase of 1 day [3][27]. - Customer and distributor DOI decreased below seasonal trends, while producer DOI remained in line with seasonal expectations [8][12]. Producer Insights - Semiconductor producers are holding 26 days more inventory than the 10-year median, but the sequential change aligns with seasonal trends [4][24]. - Memory segment DOI saw a significant decline of 22.3% quarter-over-quarter, driven by a 27.2% increase in Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) [4][59]. - Producers are cautious about replenishing distributor channel inventory, indicating a disciplined approach to inventory management [8][15]. Customer and Distributor Dynamics - Customer inventory decreased for all end markets except Communications and Consumer, with a notable decline in Storage and Computing/Mobile [12][16]. - Distributor DOI decreased by 7 days, now tracking 13 days above the historical median, indicating a leaner inventory strategy [11][21]. - The absolute dollar value of inventory across distributors decreased, with COGS increasing, leading to a decline in DOI for major distributors [11][55]. Market Trends and Challenges - Persistent macroeconomic uncertainty continues to disrupt normalized inventory levels, with producers planning to hold more inventory while customers engage in short-term ordering [3][8]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a structural shift towards higher inventory levels in anticipation of an eventual upcycle, despite recent declines in customer inventory [13][15]. - The overall DOI for the supply chain is still significantly above the historical median, indicating ongoing challenges in achieving stable inventory levels [27][29]. Future Outlook - There is potential for channel replenishment in the coming quarters, particularly for conservative companies, as distributor inventories lean out [11][15]. - AI secular tailwinds are expected to benefit memory companies, suggesting a positive outlook for certain segments within the semiconductor industry [15][59]. Additional Insights - The decline in DOI for Analog/MCU and Memory segments is seen as a constructive step towards recovery, despite the overall elevated inventory levels [9][15]. - The semiconductor industry is navigating through a complex landscape of inventory management, with varying trends across different segments and end markets [12][15][29]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends from the semiconductor inventory tracker, highlighting the current state of the industry and potential future developments.