人工智能 GPU 与 ASIC 之争再次引发讨论-Taiwan monthly tracker and what‘s new in AI – Debate on AI GPUs vs. ASIC emerges again

Summary of Taiwan Electronics & Semiconductors Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the Taiwan electronics and semiconductor industry, highlighting the ongoing demand for AI technologies and the performance of key players in the semiconductor supply chain. Key Points and Arguments AI Demand and Semiconductor Growth - AI demand, particularly from the AWS supply chain, is showing strong momentum, benefiting companies like Accton and Wiwynn [1][2] - TSMC is expected to experience promising growth due to strong advanced node and AI momentum [1] - The launch of Apple's iPhone 17 series has resulted in muted year-over-year and month-over-month performance for most of the Apple supply chain, except for lens-makers like Largan and Genius [1] Preference for AI Supply Chain - Continued preference for the AI supply chain is noted, with expectations of increased demand for advanced nodes, chiplet adoption, and power consumption leading to higher average selling prices (ASP) for advanced foundries and OSAT [1] - Increasing demand for 800G networking is anticipated into the next year, along with higher consumption for data center power [1] Nvidia Supply Chain Insights - The market is becoming more bullish on AI ASICs, especially following Broadcom's strong outlook post-earnings call [2] - Nvidia is expected to double its rack shipments by 2026, reaching 50,000 or more, aided by better infrastructure development [2] AWS Supply Chain Transition - A model transition in the AWS supply chain is expected to begin in the coming months, with Marvell's CEO indicating a focus on inventory digestion [3] - Trainium 3 is anticipated to ramp up significantly in late 2Q26 or 2H26, with Alchip likely to benefit [3] Google TPU and TSMC/KYEC - TSMC and KYEC are expected to benefit from leading-edge advanced node wafer demand and final testing upside in the TPU space, although revenue contributions remain low in the near term [4] Mediatek's Progress - Mediatek's TPU development is slower than expected, but the company's engagement with Google remains strong, with potential upside into 2027/2028 [5] Semiconductor Performance Metrics - TSMC's July and August sales are tracking ahead of market expectations, with a high chance of beating its 3Q25 USD-based sales guidance of +8% quarter-over-quarter [7] - UMC is tracking inline, while Vanguard is lagging due to soft demand in DDIC [7] ASIC Design Services - Alchip is currently behind market expectations due to lackluster demand from its US IDM project, but a strong sales rebound is expected starting from 2H26 [8] Server and ODM Sales - Server players reported strong sales in August 2025, with Wiwynn and Accton exceeding forecasts due to robust AWS ASIC server demand [9] - AI server rack shipments are expected to pick up significantly in 2H25, transitioning smoothly from GB200 to GB300 [9] PCB/ABF Substrate Market - Non-AI product demand in the PCB sector is weak, with early order pull-ins affecting sales [10] - AI ASIC names are seeing robust sales momentum, with expectations of continued price hikes in the ABF substrate market due to inflation [10] Revenue Trends - Overall revenue trends for Taiwan's technology supply chains indicate mixed performance, with some companies outperforming while others lag behind [11][13] Additional Important Insights - The profitability of the ABF industry is expected to be well-protected from 4Q25, with ASP upside anticipated in 2026 [10] - The iPhone supply chain is experiencing muted momentum ahead of new model introductions, with specific lens-makers showing resilience [1][9] This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the Taiwan electronics and semiconductor industry.