Yole：下一代 DRAM：2025 年聚焦HBM和 3D DRAM

Summary of Next-Generation DRAM 2025 Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Dynamic Random-Access Memory (DRAM) industry, particularly the High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and 3D DRAM technologies [3][28][52]. Core Insights and Arguments - Market Growth: The HBM market is projected to grow significantly, with revenues expected to rise from $17 billion in 2024 to $98 billion by 2030, reflecting a 33% CAGR [52]. - Bit Shipments: HBM bit shipments are forecasted to grow at a 31% CAGR through 2030, with a 193% YoY increase in 2024 [52]. - Revenue Share: HBM's revenue share within the DRAM market is expected to increase from 18% in 2024 to 50% by 2030 [52]. - Conventional DRAM Growth: Conventional DRAM, including DDR, LPDDR, and GDDR, is expected to grow at a modest 3% CAGR from $80 billion in 2024 [52]. - Technological Transition: The industry is preparing for a shift to 3D DRAM architectures as planar DRAM scaling reaches its limits by 2033-2034 [53][54]. Key Market Dynamics - Supply Constraints: Current supply constraints in HBM underscore its strategic importance in AI data centers, with major manufacturers fully allocating their production capacity through 2025 [52]. - Investment in Capacity: Leading suppliers, including Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron, are increasing wafer allocations for HBM production to meet escalating demand [52]. - China's Advancements: Chinese companies are making significant investments to localize memory production amid U.S. sanctions, with CXMT ramping up production and developing HBM capabilities [53]. Technology Trends - CBA Integration: The CMOS Bonded Array (CBA) architecture is expected to deliver up to a 30% increase in bit density and is seen as a crucial step towards full 3D DRAM [54]. - Emerging Technologies: The report highlights the importance of processing-in-memory (PiM) and 3D DRAM as promising long-term solutions for achieving high-density DRAM architectures [28][54]. - Advanced Packaging: Hybrid bonding is projected to enter the market with HBM5, particularly for high-stack configurations, enabling more than 20 dies per stack [54][79]. Financial Metrics - Revenue Forecasts: The overall DRAM market is expected to grow from $97 billion in 2024 to $194.5 billion by 2030, with a combined CAGR of 12% [52]. - ASP Dynamics: The average selling price (ASP) of HBM is projected to remain stable due to sustained demand, despite competitive pressures [52]. Additional Important Insights - Market Cyclicality: The report outlines the cyclicality of the DRAM market throughout history, emphasizing the need for manufacturers to adapt to price fluctuations and market dynamics [17]. - Player Dynamics: The competitive landscape is intensifying, with SK hynix leading the HBM market, followed by Samsung and Micron, who are working to catch up [53]. - Technological Challenges: The transition to advanced DRAM technologies faces challenges related to cost, yield, and alignment requirements, necessitating innovative solutions [54]. This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed understanding of the current state and future prospects of the DRAM industry, highlighting key trends, market dynamics, and technological advancements that are shaping the landscape.