美国就业数据初步基准修正能告诉我们关于经济的什么信息-US Daily_ What Do the Preliminary Benchmark Revisions to Payrolls Tell Us About the Economy_ (Abecasis)

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the labor market in the United States, specifically focusing on the revisions to payroll employment growth as announced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) [2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - Preliminary Revision of Jobs: The BLS announced a preliminary revision of -911,000 jobs to payroll employment growth between April 2024 and March 2025, indicating a significant downward adjustment [2][3]. - Impact on Job Growth: The revision suggests that job growth averaged only 71,000 jobs per month during the period, compared to the previously reported 147,000 jobs per month [6]. - Sector Distribution: The downward revision was broad-based across industries, with the largest impacts seen in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, manufacturing, and trade sectors. Transportation and utilities were the only sectors not experiencing downward revisions [11]. - Small vs. Large Businesses: The slowdown in job growth was more pronounced in small- and medium-sized businesses, which saw near-zero payroll growth, while large businesses experienced a 1.7% year-over-year payroll growth [20]. Additional Important Insights - Productivity Growth: The revisions are expected to lead to upward adjustments in productivity growth estimates, with nonfarm productivity growth likely revised to 1.7% year-over-year [40]. - Labor Market Tightness: Other indicators suggest that the labor market has softened significantly, with the underlying pace of job growth estimated to have decelerated to about 25,000 jobs per month, below the breakeven rate of 70,000 jobs per month needed to stabilize the unemployment rate [43][49]. - Birth-Death Model Concerns: The BLS's birth-death model, which estimates job creation from business openings and closings, is likely overstating payroll growth by about 30,000 jobs per month [24]. - Future Revisions: The BLS will incorporate these revisions into the establishment survey with the January employment report released in February, which will also revise job growth estimates for the remainder of 2025 [32]. Conclusion - The significant downward revision in payroll employment growth highlights potential weaknesses in the labor market, particularly among small and medium-sized businesses. The implications for productivity growth and economic indicators such as GDP and GDI are noteworthy, suggesting a need for careful monitoring of labor market trends moving forward [36][40].