尽管短期增长面临阻力，2026 年铜消费或将强劲增长-Metal Matters_ Stronger copper consumption looms from 2026 despite near-term growth headwinds

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the copper industry, particularly the supply and demand dynamics leading into 2026 and beyond [1][6][8]. Core Insights and Arguments - Copper Consumption Growth: Anticipated to be softer year-over-year (y/y) through the second half of 2025 due to growth headwinds and tougher comparisons from China [2][3]. - Price Projections: Neutral on copper prices at $10,000 per ton for the remainder of 2025, with a more constructive outlook for 2026, projecting an average of $11,000 per ton in Q4 2026 under base case scenarios, and $13,000 per ton in bull case scenarios [1][6]. - Emerging Deficits: A shift from a balanced market in 2025 to physical copper deficits in 2026 and 2027 is expected, driven by structural demand from energy transition and AI-related growth [6][8]. - Cyclical Demand Recovery: A modest recovery in cyclical demand segments is anticipated, contributing to overall copper consumption growth [8]. Important Data Points - Global End-Use Tracker: Indicated a 2.7% y/y increase in copper consumption for July, with overall growth forecasted at +2.1% for 2025 and +2.9% for 2026 [3][17]. - China's Copper Consumption: Expected to grow by 2.4% in 2025, while ex-China consumption is projected to grow by 1.8% [3][32]. - Manufacturing Sentiment: Remains subdued, with mixed signals from global manufacturing indicators, particularly in China where the PMI was at 49.4, indicating contraction [12][16]. Additional Insights - Sector-Specific Trends: The automotive sector, particularly electric vehicles (EVs), is showing strong growth, with EV sales increasing by 25% and 22% y/y in July and August respectively [26][32]. - Impact of Tariffs: US tariffs and high domestic inventories are likely to suppress import demand for refined copper and semis [2][32]. - Weather and Seasonal Factors: Seasonal weather disruptions have influenced copper consumption, particularly in consumer appliances and HVAC systems [17][26]. Conclusion - The copper market is facing short-term challenges but is expected to transition into a more favorable environment by 2026, driven by structural demand from energy transition and AI, alongside a potential recovery in cyclical demand. Investors are advised to consider averaging into long copper positions over the next 3-6 months to capitalize on medium-term upside potential [1][6].