半导体_低谷已成过去时-对模拟芯片盈利的反思-Semiconductors_ Trough in the Rearview – Reflecting on Analog Earnings

Summary of the Conference Call on Analog Earnings Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the semiconductor industry, specifically analog stocks in North America. The overall sentiment reflects a cautious optimism regarding the recovery from a trough in earnings. Key Points and Arguments Earnings Performance - Analog stocks generally underperformed during the earnings season, with global stocks down an average of 5% on earnings day due to high expectations that were not met [3][9][28]. - The June Quarter (JunQ) results were solid, indicating that the trough has been passed for the coverage, but expectations for the September Quarter (SepQ) were set too high, leading to a reversal in stock performance [3][24][28]. Recovery Outlook - A recovery is underway, but the momentum inflection has been delayed, with a flat recovery slope exiting SepQ. More constructive expectations are anticipated for December Quarter (DecQ) and 1H26 [4][39]. - Visibility remains limited due to just-in-time ordering and tariff overhang effects, which are expected to persist in the near term. However, historically low customer inventories may drive replenishment, presenting potential upside [4][39]. Key Themes for Investment - The analysis focuses on four key themes to guide investment decisions: 1. Lagging Auto Recovery: The auto sector is recovering slower than other markets, with expectations for acceleration in 4Q25 and 1Q26 as inventories normalize [5][57]. 2. Inventory Normalization: Distributor inventory sell-through has improved, but pockets of destocking remain. Companies are expected to replenish inventories in the SepQ [5][74]. 3. Flat Utilization Levels: Utilization is expected to remain flat until visibility improves, but some companies are guiding for improvement in the next two quarters [5][83]. 4. Tariff Resilience: The impact of tariffs has been less severe than anticipated, with many companies having domestic manufacturing that mitigates the effects [5][90]. Stock Recommendations - The report remains selective in stock coverage, favoring companies with diversified global manufacturing footprints and those positioned higher on the premium curve [5][94]. - Specific stock views include: - NXP (NXPI): Outperform rating with a price target of $271, supported by strong execution and growth drivers [96]. - Analog Devices (ADI): Outperform rating with a price target of $288, benefiting from strong gross margins and a solid product portfolio [96]. - Microchip Technology (MCHP): Equal weight rating with a price target of $63, showing potential but currently below peak revenues [96]. - Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM): Equal weight rating with a price target of $35, positioned well in the automotive cycle [96]. - ON Semiconductor (ON): Equal weight rating with a price target of $52, facing competitive pressures [96]. - Texas Instruments (TXN): Underweight rating with a revised price target of $192, reflecting concerns over inventory and capex [96]. Market Dynamics - The semiconductor market is experiencing a slow recovery, with analog stocks progressing ahead of microcontroller units (MCUs). Demand is expected to outpace supply, leading to estimate revisions in 2H25-1H26 [39][40]. - The auto recovery is particularly noted for its lag, with China leading the charge in electric vehicle (EV) demand, while North America and Europe are slower to recover [69][70]. Additional Important Insights - The conference highlighted the need for companies to manage inventory levels carefully and the importance of understanding the cyclical nature of the semiconductor market [5][90]. - The overall sentiment is cautious but optimistic, with a focus on selective investment in companies that demonstrate strong management and recovery potential [5][94].