美国股票策略_人工智能仍居首位，资本支出问题成 “泡沫” 隐忧-US Equity Strategy_ The Theme-ometer_ AI remains on top as capex questions ‘bubble‘

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the US Equity Strategy with a focus on AI-related themes, Pharmaceuticals, EU Defense Spending, and EU Electrification and Renewables [2][6][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - AI Themes: AI Software Pioneers are currently the preferred investment within AI-related stocks, showing slight month-over-month improvement. However, concerns about the return on AI capital expenditures persist. The REVS framework ranks AI peripherals as the top theme, supported by high earnings momentum and a favorable late-cycle growth regime [6][11]. - Pharmaceuticals: The sentiment score for the Pharmaceuticals thematic basket is improving, with negative revisions in US Pharma & Biotech slowing and turning slightly positive. Valuations are under pressure but appear attractive [6][11]. - EU Defense Spending: This theme has stabilized in the rankings after previous declines. Earnings revisions had stalled, which is often a concern when stocks are expensive and crowded. Top stocks include Thales, BAE, and Rheinmetall [6][11]. - EU Electrification and Renewables: These themes are climbing in the scorecard, marking a reversal from a multi-year downgrade cycle. Factors such as cost inflation and rising rates are abating, which is positive for these sectors [6][11]. - Consumer Themes: EU Consumer themes, including Luxury Goods and UK Homebuilders, are at the bottom of the scorecard, although scores are not materially negative. Stabilizing earnings revisions are crucial for these themes to regain attractiveness [6][11]. Additional Important Insights - Regional Performance: The Asia region, particularly Japan, ranks strongly among developed markets. Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea also show positive signals. If earnings revisions stabilize or improve, significant outperformance is expected [6][11]. - European Market Challenges: Europe ranks below the US due to score dispersion, with tariffs, currency issues, and weak Chinese demand negatively impacting half of the European market. However, top sectors like Telecoms, Utilities, Financials, and Industrials are performing well [6][11]. - US Market Dynamics: In the US, momentum is driven by preferred themes such as AI, Reshoring, and Financials. Earnings revisions are positive, and valuation concerns are not extreme. Consumer Cyclicals and Low-Income Consumer themes have improved due to positive earnings revisions [11][21]. - Defensive Positioning: In anticipation of potential stagflation, Health Care vs. Consumer Staples is suggested as a defensive strategy. Relative valuations have improved but remain below historical averages [11][21]. Thematic Rankings and Stock Performance - Top Scoring Stocks: Notable stocks in high-scoring themes include MongoDB, Meta, Mastec, Primoris, and Snowflake, with strong earnings revisions and positive sentiment [12][14]. - Bottom Scoring Stocks: Stocks in weaker themes include Gerresheimer AG and Salmar ASA, which are experiencing negative earnings revisions and low sentiment scores [15]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights a complex landscape for investors, with strong opportunities in AI and Pharmaceuticals, while caution is advised in consumer sectors and certain European markets. The REVS framework provides a structured approach to assess these themes and identify potential investment opportunities.