重视煤炭板块，低供应低库存等待旺季需求

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal market is currently experiencing a situation where long-term contract prices are higher than market prices for 5,000 kcal coal, while the 4,500 kcal long-term contract price is lower than the market price, indicating structural adjustment opportunities in the market [1][3] - The coal sector is facing performance pressure in the first half of 2025, but the overall dividend yield remains above 4%, with China Shenhua at 5% and Shaanxi Coal at 4.6%, providing a safety margin for investors [1][4] - Last week, the coal sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.2 percentage points, with small coal companies showing significant gains, suggesting an increase in market risk appetite [1][5] Price Trends and Market Dynamics - After a continuous decline, port coal prices have seen their first increase, supported by spot prices reaching long-term contract support levels and intervention from relevant national departments. The price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal is expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term [1][6] - Despite weakened electricity demand in the south, increased demand from industrial, metallurgical sectors, and winter storage in Northeast China, along with declining port inventories, are supporting coal prices [1][6] - It is anticipated that thermal coal prices may rise by 15-20 yuan per ton in the next two weeks due to power plant restocking and maintenance on the Daqin line, with further increases expected during the heating season in Q4 [1][7][8] Investment Value and Recommendations - The coal sector is considered to have good investment value despite performance pressures in 2025. Many companies maintain dividend yields above 4%, indicating solid support even under challenging conditions [1][4] - Investment opportunities are recommended in companies with price elasticity in thermal coal, such as Shaanxi Coal, China Coal Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining, as well as coking coal companies benefiting from tight supply-demand conditions [2][9] - The market is advised to focus on companies like Shaanxi Coal, China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and others that show potential for growth in the current environment [2][9] Key Considerations - Future price movements will depend on factors such as overproduction checks, inventory changes at ports, and the end of high temperatures in the south [8] - The overall sentiment in the coal market is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of price recovery supported by both supply constraints and demand increases in various sectors [1][6][7]