AIDC燃气轮机：燃气轮机海外需求强劲，中国供应链加速切入

Summary of Gas Turbine Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The global gas turbine market is projected to reach approximately $20 billion in 2024, with a high market concentration where Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Siemens Energy, and GEV hold over 75% of the market share, and about 90% in the heavy-duty segment above 50 MW [1][6][11] - The global gas turbine installed capacity is expected to show cyclical fluctuations closely tied to oil and gas prices, with an estimated capacity of 70 GW in 2024, increasing to 80 GW from 2025 to 2027, and a significant rise in demand from data centers anticipated to add around 20 GW annually from 2028 to 2030 [1][7][10] Key Insights and Arguments - The manufacturing cost structure of gas turbines indicates that blades account for the largest share at 35%, followed by control systems at 18%, and disks at 17% [1][8] - The rapid growth of electricity consumption in U.S. data centers is expected to exceed 10% of total electricity consumption by 2028, with gas turbines likely becoming the primary power source due to the inability of renewable energy sources to meet stable demand in the short term [1][10] - Cumulative demand for gas turbines in U.S. data centers is projected to exceed 20 GW between 2025 and 2028, with global demand and installed capacity expected to reach around 50 GW during the same period [1][11] Competitive Landscape - The core supply chain for gas turbines is predominantly overseas, with companies like PCC, Howmet, IHI, and GEV leading the turbine blade market, while Chinese suppliers like Yingliu and Wanze have smaller scales [1][9] - Chinese companies such as Yingliu (turbine blades), Haomai Technology (heavy-duty turbine steel components), and Hangya Technology (compressor blades) are positioned to benefit from market growth and expand their market share [1][4][14] Development and Opportunities for Chinese Companies - China's gas turbine technology is relatively underdeveloped for capacities above 30 MW, with more maturity in capacities below 30 MW due to the country's abundant coal resources [1][5] - Chinese enterprises have opportunities to penetrate the global supply chain, with Yingliu holding substantial orders and Haomai Technology expected to maintain high growth rates in the coming years [1][14][16] Future Outlook - Major industry players like GEV, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries anticipate sustained demand from data centers at least until 2030, with GEV planning to expand production significantly to meet this demand [1][13] - Companies like Jereh and Linde are also focusing on the power generation sector, with Jereh establishing a team dedicated to the U.S. data center market [1][17][18] Noteworthy Chinese Enterprises - Key Chinese companies to watch in the gas turbine manufacturing sector include Linde, Haomai Technology, Jereh, Hangyu Technology, Hangya Technology, and Wanze, all of which are expected to benefit from the increasing demand driven by AI computing power [1][19]