固收丨风浪未平，留一份谨慎

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily discuss the fixed income market, particularly focusing on the issuance of long-term bonds in 2025, which is expected to be substantial with an average maturity exceeding 15 years, increasing market pressure [1][2][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Market Pressure from Long-term Bond Issuance The issuance of long-term bonds is significant, with an average maturity of over 15 years, leading to increased market pressure and limiting the buying capacity of various institutions [1][2][10]. 2. Impact on City and Rural Commercial Banks City and rural commercial banks are experiencing reduced funding due to lower deposit rates, which has shifted funds to larger banks and non-bank institutions, limiting their ability to purchase bonds [2][5]. 3. Insurance Institutions' Shift in Strategy Insurance institutions are reallocating funds to the stock market in search of higher returns due to a decrease in preset interest rates, resulting in a reduced allocation to long-term bonds [1][5]. 4. Regulatory Pressure on Large Banks Large banks are required to conduct stress tests to ensure that their interest rate risk does not exceed 15% of their Tier 1 capital, which limits their ability to absorb long-term bonds [4][6][7]. 5. Duration Mismatch and Interest Rate Risk The significant issuance of long-term bonds has led to duration mismatches for large banks, increasing their long-term interest rate risk and limiting their capacity to hold these bonds indefinitely [4][7]. 6. Short-term Bonds as a Risk Mitigation Strategy While purchasing short-term bonds can reduce average duration, it does not effectively lower total interest rate risk. The focus should be on total holding size rather than just duration [8]. 7. Fund Selling Pressure Funds are the primary sellers of long-term and ultra-long-term bonds due to fee reforms, prior duration extension behaviors, and redemptions of mixed products, which could further release interest rate risk [11]. 8. Potential Market Issues If the current market conditions persist, there could be significant issues, particularly with ultra-long bonds, as they concentrate interest rate risk. Solutions include reducing the issuance of ultra-long bonds or increasing market demand for long-term products [12]. 9. Future Issuance Plans The issuance plans for ultra-long bonds are closely tied to project funding and are unlikely to change despite market absorption capacity issues. Adjustments in issuance pace may occur, but overall supply and maturity structure are expected to remain stable [13]. 10. Bank Capital Supplementation Addressing bank capital to manage interest rate risk is a long-term planning issue, with options including ownership increases or issuing secondary bonds, which may further increase market supply [14]. 11. Central Bank's Role Direct purchases of ultra-long bonds by the central bank are not seen as a viable solution for managing interest rate risk due to existing liquidity management constraints [15]. 12. Market Sentiment The bond market should not be viewed as simply bullish or bearish; rather, it should be assessed based on the participation of configuration plates. Current conditions suggest a challenging environment for long-term bonds [16]. 13. Configuration Value of Ultra-long Bonds The configuration value of ultra-long bonds is uncertain, particularly for 30-year bonds, as there is no clear demand for them at present [17]. 14. Asset-Liability Gap Concerns Recent announcements regarding significant repurchase operations indicate banks' attempts to stabilize metrics, but this may not lead to a decrease in deposit rates [18]. 15. Investment Strategy Adjustments The recommended investment strategy is to maintain low leverage and adopt a barbell structure, focusing on short-term instruments and specific mid-term bonds while being cautious with long-term positions [19]. Other Important Content - The notes highlight the importance of monitoring total holding sizes and the implications of regulatory requirements on banks' bond purchasing strategies, emphasizing a cautious approach in the current market environment [1][4][6][8].