锂电：重视需求预期上修、供需拐点提前的潜在弹性

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The lithium battery industry is expected to see optimistic demand growth in 2026, particularly in the power battery and energy storage markets, with heavy-duty trucks projected to double in growth and the European market benefiting from carbon emission assessments, maintaining a 30% growth rate [1][2] - The domestic passenger car market is experiencing significant increases in single-vehicle battery capacity, supporting overall demand [1] Core Insights and Arguments - Lithium hexafluorophosphate is currently in tight supply, and new production capacity may not fully cover the demand growth, indicating potential for price increases [1] - The supply pressure for separators is easing, with expectations for price and profitability recovery [1] - Structural shortages in lithium iron phosphate and anode materials persist, making price increases challenging, but new products and export profitability are anticipated [1] - The price of lithium carbonate has been corrected to around 70,000 yuan/ton, which aligns with reasonable profit margins for 2025 [1][9] - The overall supply-demand balance for lithium is expected to be maintained in 2026, with prices likely to fluctuate within a range [1][11] Market Trends - The energy storage market is experiencing significant growth, with overseas markets doubling since early 2025 and expected to maintain over 50% growth in 2026 due to declining battery prices and achieving parity in overseas markets [3] - The heavy-duty truck market is projected to see over 100% growth this year, with a shift from closed routes to trunk lines, significantly increasing single-vehicle battery capacity [5] - The European market is expected to grow by 30% this year due to carbon emission assessments, with a forecasted growth rate of 20-30% next year [5] Investment Opportunities - The lithium industry offers potential investment opportunities, particularly in lithium hexafluorophosphate and separators, which are expected to have the most potential due to their supply rigidity [7] - Companies with other metal layouts and new product releases may also see upward adjustments in their valuations [12] - Recommended companies include Ganfeng Lithium, Zhongjin Lingnan, Yongxin Lithium, and others [12] Equipment and Non-Lithium Business Impact - The overall bidding volume for lithium battery equipment is expected to reach 200-300 GW in 2025, supported by improved demand and overseas market orders [13] - Non-lithium businesses such as 3C, electric heavy trucks, and electronic cigarettes are providing significant support to equipment companies [14] - Recent orders from second-tier TV manufacturers are optimistic, with expectations for strong demand in 2026 driven by overseas markets and energy storage [15][16] Solid-State Technology - Companies with solid-state technology capabilities are expected to have significant elasticity and profitability potential, with a focus on firms like C Chain, Xianhui, Lianying, and Galaxy [17] - The mechanical equipment sector is performing well, with major companies seeing order growth exceeding 50% in the first half of 2025, and solid-state technology developments are enhancing future growth prospects [18]