中国零售销售-2025 年 8 月增长进一步乏力-ChinaHong Kong Consumer-China Retail Sales – August 2025 Growth Faltered Further

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: China Retail Sales - Date: August 2025 - Growth Rate: Retail sales growth decelerated to +3.4% YoY in August, down from +3.7% in July and below the consensus estimate of +3.8%, indicating prolonged lukewarm demand [1][4][6] Core Insights - Demand Recovery: No meaningful recovery in demand is expected for September due to deflation and the fading effects of subsidies [1][4] - Category Performance: - Electronics and Appliances: Growth slowed to 14% YoY, down from nearly 30-50% growth from March to July, attributed to a normalized comparison base due to trade-in subsidies starting in August 2024 [2][4] - Alcohol & Tobacco: Growth turned negative in August, likely due to seasonality and weak demand trends [2][4] - Gold & Jewelry: Experienced the highest growth acceleration in August at 16.8% YoY [2][5] - Cosmetics, Soft Drinks, Apparel, and Restaurant & Dining: These categories saw some growth acceleration compared to July [2][4] Retail Sales Trends - Overall Retail Sales: - August 2025: 3.4% YoY growth - July 2025: 3.7% YoY growth - CAGR vs. 2019: Stabilized at 2.7% [5][6] - Retail Sales Excluding Autos: - August 2025: 3.7% YoY growth - July 2025: 4.3% YoY growth [5] Stock Implications - Consumer Sentiment: Remains lackluster due to deflation, concerns over wage growth, and a softening property market [4][6] - Investment Focus for 2H25: - Recovery pace and pricing trends are critical for re-rating [4] - Preferred stocks include: - High growth: Pop Mart (9992.HK), Giant Biogene (2367.HK) - Turnaround plays: Yili (600887.SS) - Resilient earnings: YUMC (YUMC.N), Anta (2020.HK) [4][6] Additional Insights - Consumer Policies: Consumption-supportive policies could provide some support to demand sentiment [4] - Category Divergence: There is a notable divergence in trends across different retail categories, indicating varied consumer behavior and preferences [3][4] Conclusion The retail landscape in China is currently facing challenges with decelerating growth rates and mixed performance across categories. The outlook for September remains cautious, with expectations of continued weak demand influenced by macroeconomic factors. Investors are advised to focus on specific high-growth and resilient companies as potential opportunities amidst the broader market challenges.