大中华区半导体展望投资者报告-Investor Presentation Greater China Semiconductors Outlook

Summary of the Investor Presentation: Greater China Semiconductors Outlook Industry Overview - Industry Focus: Semiconductors in Greater China - Overall Industry View: Attractive [2][4] Key Insights - Top Investment Picks: - AI Segment: TSMC (Top Pick), Winbond (Top Pick), Alchip, Aspeed, MediaTek, KYEC, ASE, FOCI, Himax, ASMPT [4] - Non-AI Segment: Novatek, OmniVision, Realtek [4] - China Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE): NAURA Tech, AMEC, ACMR [4] - Specialty Semiconductors: Silergy, SG Micro, SICC, Yangjie [4] - Market Dynamics: - AI cannibalization may impact recovery in the second half of 2025 due to tariff costs [4] - A decline in semiconductor inventory days historically signals positive stock price appreciation [4] - The demand for AI semiconductors is expected to accelerate due to generative AI, influencing various verticals beyond the semiconductor industry [4] - Tech deflation is anticipated to stimulate demand for technology products [4] Financial Metrics and Valuation - Valuation Comparison: - TSMC's current price is 1,255.0 TWD with a target of 1,388.0 TWD, indicating an 11% upside [5] - UMC's current price is 41.1 TWD with a target of 48.0 TWD, indicating a 17% upside [5] - SMIC's current price is 63.0 HKD with a target of 40.0 HKD, indicating a -37% downside [5] - P/E Ratios: - TSMC: 27.7 (2024), 21.4 (2025e), 18.4 (2026e) [5] - UMC: 10.9 (2024), 15.6 (2025e), 11.5 (2026e) [5] - EPS Growth: - TSMC: 40% (2024), 29% (2025e), 17% (2026e) [5] - UMC: -23% (2024), -30% (2025e), 35% (2026e) [5] Supply Chain and Production Insights - China's GPU Supply: - The self-sufficiency ratio for domestic GPUs was 34% in 2024, expected to reach 82% by 2027 [26] - Local GPU revenue could grow to RMB 287 billion by 2027, driven by SMIC's leading node capacity [31] - Capex Forecast: - The top six companies' capital expenditures are forecasted to grow 62% YoY to RMB 373 billion [24] Additional Considerations - AI Demand: The DeepSeek technology is expected to drive inference AI demand, raising questions about the sufficiency of domestic GPU supply [4][21] - Market Trends: The semiconductor stock index has shown an upward trend, with non-AI semiconductor growth at only 10% YoY in 2024 [9][14] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and financial metrics from the investor presentation, highlighting the semiconductor industry's current landscape and future outlook in Greater China.