半导体资本设备：存储器晶圆厂设备（WFE）上行空间展望-Semiconductor Capital Equipment North America Framing the Memory WFE Upside

Summary of Semiconductor Capital Equipment Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Semiconductor Capital Equipment industry, specifically in North America [7][8]. Key Points Memory Pricing and Demand - Memory pricing has improved significantly, with large orders from hyperscalers for eSSD and DDR5 leading to higher prices in Q4 [3][4]. - The supply-demand dynamics have tightened, particularly in NAND, due to a shift from HDD to eSSD storage applications, causing NAND suppliers to take wafers offline for capacity upgrades [3][4]. Forecasts for 2026 - The initial forecast for Memory WFE (Wafer Front End) in 2026 was $43.8 billion, but a bull case scenario suggests it could reach $50 billion, representing a 25% year-over-year increase [4][9]. - DRAM WFE is projected at $35 billion (+18% y/y) and NAND WFE at $15 billion (+42% y/y) under the bull case scenario [4][9]. Impact on Earnings - The bull case for memory pricing implies a 7% upside for LAM Research (LAM) and a 5% upside for Applied Materials (AMAT) in their CY26 EPS forecasts [5][9]. - LAM's estimates could rise from $21.5 billion/$5.12 to $23.0 billion/$5.50, while AMAT's could increase from $29.4 billion/$9.58 to $30.6 billion/$10.09 [5][9]. Market Positioning - LAM is currently trading at 21-22x its memory bull case EPS, while AMAT trades at 16-17x, indicating a 23% discount to LAM [5]. - The analysts acknowledge a poorly timed downgrade for LAM just before a strengthening in NAND market conditions [5]. Bit Demand Growth - DRAM bit demand growth is expected to be 22% (up from 18%), while NAND bit demand growth is projected at 26% (with eSSD demand up 50% y/y) [9][21]. - This growth is expected to lead to significant increases in WFE for both DRAM and NAND [9][21]. Utilization Challenges - Utilization rates present a headwind to the NAND WFE bull case, as companies will need to upgrade capacity to meet eSSD demand without requiring new greenfield investments in 2026 [12][21]. Risk Factors - Risks to the upside include market share gains in DRAM outpacing WFE growth and AMAT capturing market share in logic technology [36]. - Risks to the downside involve potential losses in market share to competitors and widespread restrictions on equipment shipments to China [36][57]. Conclusion - The semiconductor capital equipment industry is poised for growth driven by improved memory pricing and demand, particularly in NAND and DRAM sectors. However, challenges related to utilization and market dynamics in China could impact overall performance. The outlook for LAM and AMAT remains cautiously optimistic, with potential for upward revisions in earnings forecasts based on market conditions.