北美互联网：2026 年展望-核心争议、催化因素与投资标的-Internet North America Top Debates, Catalysts and Picks into ’26

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Internet Sector in North America - Key Companies: GOOGL, META, AMZN, DASH, CHWY, DUOL, U, RBLX - Overall View: The internet sector is viewed as attractive with a focus on GenAI catalysts and evolving debates impacting major players [1][2][3] Core Points and Arguments GenAI Catalysts - Catalysts Identified: Model advances, agentic offerings, capital expenditures (capex), and custom silicon are expected to drive performance for GOOGL, META, and AMZN [1] - Capex Projections: Total data center capex is expected to reach approximately $505 billion in 2026, up 24% from the previous year, and $586 billion in 2027 [5][6] Company Preferences - Mega Caps Preference: The order of preference for the next 12 months is AMZN, META, and GOOGL [2] - Smids Preference: Positive outlook on DASH, CHWY, DUOL, U, and RBLX [2] GOOGL Insights - Search Revenue Growth: Anticipated search revenue growth of approximately 12% in 2025 and 9% in 2026, driven by AI innovations [16] - GCP Growth: Google Cloud Platform (GCP) is expected to grow by 31% in 2026, with potential upside from TPUs and custom silicon [16] META Insights - Revenue Growth: Expected revenue growth of 23% in Q4 2025 and 18% in 2026, driven by core GPU-enabled improvements [25] - Llama Model Launch: Anticipated launch of the next Llama model in early 2026, which is crucial for META's competitive positioning [25] AMZN Insights - AWS Growth: AWS is projected to achieve over 20% growth in 2026, supported by increased data center square footage [37] - Retail Margins: North America retail margins are expected to improve, with potential EPS growth of $8-$9 in 2026/2027 [33][38] Shared Economy Insights - Rideshare Growth: UBER and LYFT are expected to grow US trips by 15% and 12% respectively in 2026, with UBER's scale providing a competitive advantage [43] - Food Delivery: DASH is projected to add over $300 million in annual adjusted EBITDA in 2026, driven by synergies from the ROO acquisition [46] Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) - Room Night Growth: Stable growth of 7% in room nights is expected for ABNB, BKNG, and EXPE in 2026, influenced by macro leisure travel demand [49] - Agentic AI Risks: The rise of agentic AI poses both risks and opportunities for OTAs, particularly in retaining market share at the top of the travel funnel [49] Additional Important Insights - Capex as % of FCF: GOOGL, META, and AMZN are expected to have capex as a percentage of free cash flow (FCF) reaching 57%, 73%, and 78% respectively in 2026 [12] - Consumer Behavior Trends: Surveys indicate that a significant portion of ChatGPT and Gemini users engage in commercial behavior, highlighting the competitive landscape for GOOGL and META [21][22] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the internet sector and its major players.