联合深度专题：反内卷，细分行业如何选？

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - Steel Industry: Profitability improvement relies on supply-demand optimization and capacity exit. Anti-dumping measures aim to suppress raw material positions and promote profit return to the industry chain, aligning with national strategic direction. Expected implementation of graded management starting in 2026, with non-compliant companies facing significant production cuts, thus driving market clearance [1][6][4]. - Cement Industry: Facing supply-side overproduction governance. Strict implementation and cooperation among companies could lead to price elasticity. Current actual capacity utilization is around 50%, with regional variations [13][14]. - Photovoltaic Glass: Low profitability but high capacity utilization, with long-term demand growth expected. Strong necessity for anti-involution measures due to low profitability [16][12]. - Express Delivery Industry: Rapid effects from anti-involution, with significant price increases and high profit elasticity. Each listed express company could add 500 to 1,000 million profits per quarter [20][23]. - Aviation Industry: Affected by weak business demand, but typically performs well in Q4. Structural oversupply is a challenge, with North American routes not recovering, leading to increased domestic capacity [22][29]. - Chemical Industry: Influenced by inventory cycles and new capacity launches, with most sub-industries in a wait-and-see state. Focus on opportunities for clearing outdated capacities in specific sectors [31][32]. Key Points and Arguments - Steel Industry Profitability: Post anti-involution policy, profitability surged from 40-50 RMB per ton to over 200 RMB, but has since declined due to rising raw material prices [2]. The industry needs supply-demand balance and capacity exit for sustained profitability [9]. - Profit Distribution in Steel: Iron ore accounts for 70-75% of the profit distribution, while steel and coking coal each account for 15%. The reliance on imported iron ore necessitates adjustments through anti-involution policies for reasonable profit distribution [5]. - Future Management of Steel Capacity: Starting in 2025, a limit of 50 million tons will be implemented, with graded management expected in 2026 to drive the exit of outdated capacities [6]. - Cement Price Elasticity: Price elasticity in the cement industry will depend on strict implementation of overproduction governance and cooperation among companies [17]. - Photovoltaic Glass Supply Changes: The industry has seen price increases due to production limits, with a current capacity utilization of about 70%. Long-term supply changes will depend on policy advancements [19]. - Express Delivery Price Trends: The express delivery industry has seen significant price increases, with regulatory measures supporting price hikes through warehouse locking and feedback mechanisms [26]. - Aviation Industry Challenges: The aviation sector is facing structural oversupply and weak business demand, with a projected low growth rate in supply over the next few years [28][30]. Additional Important Insights - Investment Recommendations: - For the steel sector, focus on leading companies like Hualing Steel and Baosteel, which could see profit elasticity of 40-80% if profitability rebounds [10]. - In the cement sector, Huaxin Cement is recommended due to its domestic and overseas business potential [18]. - In the express delivery sector, stocks of tail-end companies like Shentong, YTO, and Yunda are recommended for investment [27]. - Chemical Industry Opportunities: Potential for collaborative production cuts in sectors like organic silicon and polyester filament, which are currently underperforming [34]. - Coal Industry Outlook: The coal sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic factors and supply restrictions, with specific recommendations for Yanzhou Coal and Electric Power [45]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the discussed industries and their future outlooks.