中国在线旅游 - 政府提振旅游消费举措及即将到来的假期需求可能表现良好-China OTAs-Gov t Measures to Boost Travel Consumption and Upcoming Holiday Demand Likely Decent

Summary of Conference Call on China OTAs Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Chinese Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) and the impact of government measures on travel consumption and demand during upcoming holidays [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Government Policies: The Ministry of Commerce and other departments issued policies aimed at expanding service consumption, which includes measures to attract more inbound visitors and optimize holiday arrangements for students [1][2]. 2. Holiday Demand: Anticipation of decent travel demand during the upcoming Golden Week, which will be an 8-day holiday, one day longer than in 2024. This is expected to benefit long-haul and outbound travel significantly [1][3]. 3. Railway Passenger Estimates: The China State Railway Group estimates that railway passenger throughput could reach 219 million during the 12-day transportation period from September 29 to October 10, with an average daily throughput of 18.25 million, reflecting a 24% year-over-year increase [3]. 4. Booking Trends: Preliminary booking data from OTA platforms indicate a 30% year-over-year growth in domestic travel willingness and over 40% year-over-year growth in outbound travel willingness [5]. 5. Long-Haul Travel: Data from Ctrip and Qunar show that top destinations during the 2024 Golden Week include Japan, Thailand, South Korea, and Malaysia, with increasing interest in long-haul destinations like Australia and Europe [6]. Company-Specific Insights 1. Tongcheng Travel Holdings: - Target price set at HK$28, based on a 16x non-IFRS 2026E EPS, reflecting strong growth momentum [7]. - Risks include competition from OTA peers and reliance on hotel supply from Trip.com [8]. 2. Trip.com Group Ltd: - Target price set at US$85, with the core business valued at approximately US$78 per share based on a 20x P/E for 2026E [9]. - Risks include a potential softening of the macro environment affecting travel demand and increased domestic competition [10]. Additional Important Information - The longer holiday period is expected to dilute the daily average number of travelers, making the total passenger throughput more significant than the daily averages suggest [3]. - The call emphasized the importance of monitoring macroeconomic conditions and competition in the OTA space, as these factors could impact the growth trajectories of the companies discussed [8][10].