大中华区半导体行业 - 云计算半导体需求因人工智能和非人工智能领域而好于预期-Greater China SemiconductorsCloud Semis Demand Upside from Both AI and Non AI

Summary of Conference Call on Greater China Semiconductors Industry Overview - Industry: Greater China Semiconductors, specifically focusing on cloud semiconductors - Key Trends: Ongoing strength in cloud semiconductors driven by both AI and non-AI demand, with significant upside potential for general servers and tier 2 cloud service providers (CSPs) [1][2] Core Insights - Capex Growth: Oracle reported a strong capital expenditure (capex) of USD 8.5 billion for F1Q, down 6% quarter-over-quarter but up 269% year-over-year, with bookings reaching an extraordinary USD 332 billion. Revised FY26 capex expectations are around USD 35 billion, indicating substantial future spending [3][10] - Datacenter Spending: US datacenter spending increased by 30% year-over-year to USD 3.6 billion in July, with Taiwan's processor exports rising 104% year-over-year despite a 6% month-over-month decline [4][10] - General Server Demand: Aspeed's BMC for general servers is expected to show high teens year-over-year growth, driven by increased orders from CSPs correlating with NAND demand [5][10] Company-Specific Insights - Aspeed Technology: The company is positioned for growth in 2026 despite current revenue being capped by supply constraints. Market share expansion is anticipated in AST2700, with AST2750 and IoT expanders gaining traction [6][10] - Oracle's Position: Oracle is aggressively pursuing both AI training and inferencing markets, with expectations for Oracle Cloud Infrastructure to grow 77% to USD 18 billion this fiscal year, and further increases projected over the next four years [11][10] Additional Important Points - Cloud Capex Tracker: The cumulative capex for the top 11 cloud providers is expected to reach USD 445 billion in 2025, reflecting a significant increase from previous estimates [22][25] - Market Dynamics: The overall capital intensity in the cloud sector is projected to exceed 18%, with expectations for it to surpass 20% of revenue in 2026 [26][29] - Processor Exports: Processor exports have shown remarkable strength, with 78% year-over-year growth as of August 2025, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024 [16][20] Conclusion - The Greater China semiconductor industry, particularly in cloud semiconductors, is experiencing robust growth driven by significant investments from major players like Oracle and Aspeed. The demand for cloud infrastructure is expected to continue rising, supported by strong datacenter spending and increasing capex forecasts across the industry.