我们如何看待美国降息后，金银价格走势

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the precious metals market, particularly gold and silver, in the context of U.S. monetary policy and global economic conditions [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - U.S. Monetary Policy Outlook: The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates three times in 2025, potentially bringing the rate down to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% by year-end, contrasting with the previous year’s stronger dollar environment [1][5]. - Global Economic Divergence: The divergence in monetary policies among the U.S., European Central Bank (ECB), and Bank of Japan (BoJ) is highlighted, with the ECB pausing rate cuts and the BoJ maintaining rates after a hike in January 2025 [1][5]. - Labor Market Trends: The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with non-farm payroll data underperforming and an increasing unemployment rate, while the Eurozone is experiencing a decline in unemployment [1][6]. - Manufacturing PMI: The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI reached a three-year high of 50.7 in August 2025, driven by improvements in France and Germany, indicating a potential economic recovery [6][7]. - Impact of Fed's Independence: The independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat, which could weaken the dollar's credibility and the safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries, leading to higher long-term bond yields [1][8]. Additional Important Points - Investment Recommendations: Investors are advised to continue holding or investing in undervalued gold and silver companies, as they are expected to benefit significantly from the current economic environment [2][9]. - Historical Context: The call references the market's reaction to the Fed's previous rate cuts in September 2024, where the dollar initially weakened but later strengthened due to market expectations surrounding political developments [4]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the implications for the precious metals market and investment strategies in light of evolving economic conditions.