美国：FOMC将联邦基金利率下调 25 个基点；SEP 中位数预测 2025 年有三次降息，2026 年和 2027 年各一次USA_ FOMC Lowers Fed Funds Rate 25bp; SEP Median Projects Three Cuts for 2025, One Each in 2026 and 2027

Summary of Key Points from the FOMC Meeting Industry Overview - The document discusses the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its decisions regarding the federal funds rate, which impacts the broader financial and economic landscape. Core Points and Arguments 1. Fed Funds Rate Adjustment: - The FOMC lowered the target range for the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 4-4.25% during the September meeting. Governor Miran was the only dissenter, advocating for a 50 basis point cut instead. The statement highlighted that job gains have slowed and downside risks to employment have increased, despite rising inflation [2][1]. 2. Future Rate Projections: - The median projection in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) indicates three rate cuts in 2025, a change from two cuts projected in June. There will be one cut each in 2026 and 2027, leading to a terminal rate of 3.125%, down from 3.375% previously [3][1]. 3. Economic Growth Forecast: - The median forecast shows an increase in real GDP growth, with revisions up by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6% in 2025, 1.8% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027. The unemployment rate remains unchanged for 2025 but is projected to decrease by 0.1 percentage points in 2026 (to 4.4%) and 2027 (to 4.3%) [4][1]. 4. Inflation Projections: - Inflation projections remain unchanged for 2025, with a 0.2 percentage point increase in 2026 (to 2.6%), while remaining unchanged for 2027 [7][1]. Additional Important Information - The FOMC's removal of previous references to "the extent and timing" of future rate cuts suggests a clearer outlook on monetary policy direction, indicating less uncertainty about future rate adjustments [2][1]. - The document emphasizes that investors should consider this report as one of many factors in their investment decisions, highlighting the importance of comprehensive analysis [5][1]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the FOMC meeting, focusing on monetary policy adjustments, economic forecasts, and inflation expectations, which are essential for understanding the current economic climate and potential investment opportunities.