美联储观察 ——9 月FOMC：以更高通胀为代价支持劳动力市场-Federal Reserve Monitor-September FOMC Quick Reaction Supporting the labor market at the expense of higher inflation

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and its implications for the labor market and inflation in North America. Core Insights and Arguments - The Federal Reserve has cut the target Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.0% to 4.25% due to rising downside risks to employment and higher inflation [1][4][5] - The Fed's updated forecasts indicate that inflation is expected to run above 2.0% for a longer period, with the PCE inflation revised to 2.6% in 2026 from a previous estimate of 2.4% [1][3] - The dot plot suggests three additional rate cuts this year, although the decision was made by a narrow margin of 10-9 [3][5] - There was dissent within the committee, with one governor advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [3][5] Important Changes and Statements - The Fed's statement highlighted that job gains have slowed, the unemployment rate has edged up, and inflation has increased, reflecting a shift in the balance of risks [4][8] - The language used in the Fed's statement has become more immediate regarding future policy changes, indicating a readiness for further adjustments [4][8] - The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) shows a median forecast of 1.6% real GDP growth for 2025, an increase from the previous estimate of 1.4% [10] Additional Noteworthy Content - The uncertainty regarding GDP growth remains elevated, with risks skewed to the downside [15][18] - There is also elevated uncertainty about the unemployment rate and inflation, with risks weighted to the upside [23][26] - The Fed's approach reflects a dovish stance, prioritizing labor market support even at the risk of higher inflation [1][3] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and their implications for the economy.