中国房地产_8 月销售额降幅扩大；四季度展望仍疲弱-China Property_ Wider Sales Decline in August; 4Q Outlook Remains Weak

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Industry Industry Overview - Industry: China Property - Region: Asia Pacific - Current Sentiment: Cautious outlook for the property market in 4Q 2025 due to declining sales and construction activity [1][4] Key Points Sales Performance - August Sales Decline: Property sales in August saw a year-on-year decline of 14.0% in value and 10.6% in volume, contributing to an 8M25 decline of 7.3% in value and 4.7% in volume [2][6] - Home Prices: NBS 70-city home prices decreased by 0.3% month-on-month in primary markets and 0.6% in secondary markets in August, indicating a continued downward trend [2] Construction Activity - Completions: Construction completions fell by 21% year-on-year in August, with an 8M25 decline of 17.0% [3] - New Starts: New construction starts dropped by 20% year-on-year in August, deepening the 8M25 decline to 19.5% [3] - Land Sales: Sluggish land sales were noted, with a 12% year-on-year drop in volume across 300 cities [3] Market Sentiment - Cautious Resident Sentiment: High-frequency sales data indicates a worsening sentiment among residents, leading to lower listing prices and higher listing volumes [4] - Policy Outlook: The expectation is that nationwide housing policy will remain muted, with no significant stimulus anticipated [4] Investment Recommendations - Defensive Strategy: Given the weak sales outlook, the recommendation is to focus on state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with good visibility, such as: - Consumption Beneficiaries: CR Land (1109.HK) and CR Mixc (1209.HK) - High-Dividend-Yield Plays: C&D International Investment Group (1908.HK) [5] Additional Insights - Inventory Levels: High inventory levels are contributing to the weak construction outlook for 4Q 2025, posing potential downside risks to forecasts [3] - Economic Impact: The property market's role in driving economic growth is diminishing, further complicating recovery prospects [4] Financial Data Summary (8M25) - Total Sales Value: Rmb 5,502 billion, down 7.3% YoY - Residential Sales Value: Rmb 4,845 billion, down 7.0% YoY - Total GFA Sold: 573 million sqm, down 4.7% YoY - Total RE Investment: Rmb 6,031 billion, down 12.9% YoY [6] This summary encapsulates the current state of the China property market, highlighting significant declines in sales and construction, cautious sentiment among residents, and strategic investment recommendations amidst a challenging environment.