存储市场更新_2025 年台湾国际半导体展存储高管峰会核心要点-Memory Market Update_ Key takeaways from SEMICON Taiwan 2025 Memory executive summit

Summary of J.P. Morgan's Memory Market Update Industry Overview - The report focuses on the memory industry, particularly DRAM and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) solutions, as discussed during the SEMICON Taiwan 2025 Memory Executive Summit [1] Key Insights 1. Long-term Growth Prospects: - Positive outlook on long-term DRAM growth driven by: - Increasing custom silicon needs for next-gen HBM solutions - Enhanced power savings contributions - Development of emerging memory solutions (CXL, PIM, Z-NAND, CUBE) - New memory solutions for edge AI applications - Pathfinding to higher capacity through hybrid copper bonding [1] 2. Custom HBM's Role: - Transition from passive to active memory solutions, with custom HBM (cHBM) becoming integral to AI infrastructure design - Memory makers are focusing on tailored features and processing capabilities to meet diverse customer needs - Collaboration with foundries and supply chain partners is emphasized [1] 3. Power Consumption and AI: - AI's explosive power consumption is leading to a critical role for HBM in total cost of ownership (TCO) savings - Datacenter power consumption is projected to rise from 1.5% in 2025 to 3.0% by 2030, with AI servers expected to account for 65% of datacenter power consumption by 2030, increasing 56 times compared to 2023 [7] - Memory makers are addressing design challenges to meet power-saving requirements, with SKH highlighting the importance of higher stack and bandwidth [7] 4. Emerging Memory Solutions: - Memory makers are targeting the commercialization of emerging memory solutions for specific applications - Notable developments include Samsung's LPD5X-PIM and SEC's SOCAMM2, which offers a 70% smaller form factor compared to DIMM [12] 5. AI Inferencing Growth: - Shift from AI training to AI inferencing is expected to drive growth in edge AI hardware, with a projected 21% CAGR from 2023 to 2030, reaching a total addressable market of $50 billion [12] - Memory suppliers are preparing advanced edge AI solutions for market adoption in the next 2-3 years [12] 6. Hybrid Bonding Solutions: - Increasing commitment to hybrid bonding solutions in HBM, with expectations of higher layer stacking and better thermal resistance [15] - SKH has completed HBM4 development, supporting speeds of 10Gb/s+, ahead of competitors [15] 7. Investment Recommendations: - Memory shares have risen 27% in the last month, driven by strong AI demand and improved pricing expectations for conventional memory [15] - The memory sector's risk-reward profile is viewed favorably over the next 6-12 months, with SKH and SEC recommended as top picks [15] Additional Important Points - The report highlights the importance of R&D investment in hybrid bonding technology and the expected impact of HBM4 qualification on pricing negotiations [15] - The ongoing strength in AI demand is anticipated to maintain tight supply-demand conditions until new capacity expansions begin in 2027 [15]