中国房地产月度追踪_8 月疲软基本符合预期，“金九” 预期低迷-China Property Monthly Tracker_ Weak Aug broadly inline, low expectation for _Golden September_

Summary of Key Points from the China Property Monthly Tracker Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese property market, specifically analyzing the performance of primary and secondary property sales, completions, and new starts in August 2025, with expectations for September 2025. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Sales Performance: - Nationwide primary sales volume and value decreased by 11% and 14% year-over-year (yoy) respectively, while completions fell by 21% yoy, aligning with expectations. However, the decline in new starts was more severe at 20% yoy, which was below expectations [1][7][28]. - Secondary sales volume also showed a modest decline, largely inline with expectations, at a decrease of mid-single digits percentage (MSD%) yoy [1][7]. 2. Price Trends: - Prices for both primary and secondary markets continued to decline, with secondary prices experiencing a more significant drop. In Tier-1 cities, primary average selling prices (ASPs) were relatively more resilient compared to secondary ASPs [1][7][10]. - The average selling price index for 70 cities showed a decline of 0.3% for primary and 0.6% for secondary markets month-over-month (mom) in August [7][30]. 3. Construction Activity: - New construction starts and completions are expected to continue their decline, with forecasts indicating a 20% yoy decrease for both metrics in September [1][15]. - The completed but unsold residential inventory decreased by 1% mom, indicating some improvement in inventory management [7]. 4. Developer Activity: - Developers' land acquisition intensity decreased, with new land acquisitions in August accounting for 38% of contract sales, down from 52% in the previous months. The average project-level gross profit margin (GPM) for these acquisitions was 21% [8][69]. - Developers are focusing on profitability over volume, with a significant portion of land investments concentrated in Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities [8][69]. 5. Market Sentiment and Expectations: - Looking ahead to September, expectations include continued price weakness, particularly in secondary markets, while primary ASPs in high-tier cities may show resilience [1][9]. - The overall demand score for the property market slightly dropped to 40/100, indicating a challenging environment for home purchases, influenced by sluggish mortgage performance and buyer sentiment [52][54]. Additional Important Insights 1. Government and Policy Impacts: - The report highlights the potential for government interventions, such as easing housing purchase restrictions in Tier-1 cities and further mortgage rate cuts, which could support market recovery [17][19]. - There is a focus on urban renewal and inventory reduction as key themes in central-level policies since August 2025 [77]. 2. Liquidity Challenges: - Developers are facing a funding gap estimated at Rmb3.3 trillion for 2025, which could hinder their operational capabilities unless sell-through rates improve or government buybacks are intensified [53][56]. 3. Market Dynamics: - The report notes that competition for key land parcels in major cities is expected to increase, with local governments potentially increasing the supply of quality land to meet fiscal needs [16][19]. 4. Secondary Market Trends: - Secondary market sentiment is expected to improve slightly in September, supported by seasonal factors, although overall performance remains weak compared to previous years [14][43]. This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed overview of the current state and future expectations of the Chinese property market, highlighting both challenges and potential areas for recovery.