长江策略-探七轮美联储降息规律，迎全球“Risk on”行情——“重估牛”系列

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, particularly focusing on the implications of potential interest rate cuts on various asset classes and markets. Core Points and Arguments 1. U.S. Economic Slowdown: Recent macroeconomic data indicates a significant slowdown in U.S. economic momentum, with August non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, far below the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rising for three consecutive months, suggesting a cooling labor market [7][15][20]. 2. Inflation Trends: July's inflation data showed a moderate increase, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth at 2.7%, below the expected 2.8%. Core CPI slightly exceeded expectations at 3.1%, but overall inflation pressures remain manageable [15][20]. 3. Market Expectations for Rate Cuts: The market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has strengthened, with a 100% probability indicated by the CME FedWatch tool. Fed Chair Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole conference reinforced this dovish outlook [7][20][21]. 4. Historical Rate Cut Cycles: The report reviews seven historical rate cut cycles since 1989, highlighting differences in driving factors and asset performance during these periods. The cycles are categorized into preventive and recessionary cuts [8][26][29]. 5. Asset Allocation Strategies: - Equities: A risk-on environment is anticipated, with developed markets expected to perform better than emerging markets. Specific sectors such as technology, real estate, and finance in A-shares, as well as real estate, finance, and consumer discretionary in Hong Kong stocks, are projected to outperform [9][10]. - Bonds: U.S. Treasuries are seen as ideal during recessionary cuts but less favorable in preventive cuts [9]. - Currency: The U.S. dollar is expected to weaken during preventive cut cycles [9]. - Gold: Historically, gold performs well during preventive cut cycles due to its inflation-hedging and safe-haven properties [9]. 6. Focus on Upcoming Rate Cut: The upcoming rate cut on September 18, 2024, is expected to initiate a new cycle of equity market expansion, particularly benefiting Hong Kong and A-shares, with a focus on technology, finance, and real estate sectors [10][12]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. Diverse Reactions to Monetary Policy: Different asset classes react variably to monetary policy changes, reflecting regional economic fundamentals and capital flows [33][39]. 2. Performance of Risk Assets: Historical data shows that during previous rate cut cycles, certain markets like Hong Kong and gold have outperformed others, indicating the importance of strategic asset allocation [33][39][52]. 3. Sector-Specific Insights: In the context of the 2001-2003 rate cut cycle, sectors such as utilities and energy in A-shares showed resilience, while healthcare and technology in Hong Kong exhibited significant gains [55]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the implications of U.S. monetary policy on various asset classes and market sectors.