2025-09-19 03:15Summary of Greater China Semiconductors Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Greater China semiconductor industry, highlighting recent developments in domestic DUV testing and the AI chip market. Key Companies Discussed - SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp): Testing China's first domestic DUV lithography tool from Yuliangsheng - Yuliangsheng (YLS): A Shanghai start-up producing DUV lithography tools - Nvidia: Mentioned in the context of a ban on its RTX Pro 6000D chips for Chinese CSPs - ASMPT: Equipment vendor expected to benefit from increasing demand - Wanye: Another equipment vendor mentioned in relation to domestic demand - Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC): Regulatory body involved in the ban on Nvidia chips Core Insights - Domestic DUV Lithography Tool: SMIC is testing YLS's DUV lithography tool, marking a significant step towards self-reliance in wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) in China. However, the tool is still in the demo phase and may take 1-2 years to achieve high-volume production viability [1] - Ban on Nvidia Chips: The CAC's instruction to halt testing and cancel orders for Nvidia's RTX Pro 6000D was anticipated due to low demand among Chinese CSPs [1] - AI Chip Market: Domestic AI chips such as Ascend, Cambricon, and Kunlunxin are improving in performance, which is expected to sustain positive sentiment in the Chinese AI chip market and its supply chain [1] Financial Projections and Valuations - ASMPT: Target price set at HK$85 based on a 22x 2026E P/E, driven by expected revenue recovery from TCB order wins and stabilization in SEMI and SMT markets [4] - OmniVision: Target price of Rmb180 based on a 50x 2025E P/E, justified by anticipated strong earnings growth from automotive market share gains [6] - SG Micro: Target price of Rmb100 based on a 65x 2026E EPS, reflecting early-stage analog localization in China [8] - Wanye: Target price of Rmb13.0, reflecting a discount due to underperformance in revenue growth and profitability [10] - SMIC: Target price of HK$53.0 based on a 2.4x 2026 P/B, supported by US-China decoupling demand and gradual industry recovery [13] Risks Identified - ASMPT: Risks include a worsening semiconductor outlook, market share loss, and competition [5] - OmniVision: Risks involve pricing pressure in automotive CIS, market share loss, and competition [7] - SG Micro: Risks include price competition, inventory corrections, and demand slowdowns [9] - Wanye: Risks include supply chain disruptions due to US restrictions and underperformance in revenue growth [11] - SMIC: Risks include margin pressures from depreciation, weak policy support, and demand fluctuations [15] Additional Insights - The ongoing developments in the semiconductor industry reflect a broader trend towards localization and self-sufficiency in China, particularly in response to geopolitical tensions and export restrictions from the US [1][3] - The positive sentiment surrounding domestic AI chips indicates a potential shift in market dynamics, favoring local manufacturers over foreign competitors [1] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the Greater China semiconductor industry.