港交所：市场对互联互通南向交易活跃度过度折价；买入

Summary of Hong Kong Exchanges (0388.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Hong Kong Exchanges (0388.HK) - Market Capitalization: HK$580.7 billion - Current Share Price: HK$458.00 - Target Price: HK$544.00 - Upside Potential: 18.8% [1] Key Industry Insights - Market Performance: The share price has underperformed key indices due to bearish management guidance regarding investment income for the second half of 2025. However, the second quarter results exceeded expectations, driven by higher-than-expected investment income [1] - Average Daily Turnover (ADT): Cash equity ADT has been increasing, with a month-to-date ADT of HK$318 billion compared to HK$279 billion in August 2025 and HK$254 billion year-to-date. Southbound (SB) trading has reached new highs in net buying and overall ADT contribution [2] - Year-on-Year Growth: The overall market capitalization has grown approximately 50% year-on-year, with SB contributing 30%-40% to the uplift in overall ADT [2] Financial Performance - Investment Income: Expected to be around half of the first half level in the third quarter due to lower HIBOR rates, a reduction in the external portfolio, and changes in margin money agreements [1] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): Bloomberg consensus EPS expectations are at all-time high levels, with a 5% upward revision over the last month. The company has raised FY25-27E EPS estimates by 3%-4% based on recent volume trends [3][21] Revenue Projections - Revenue Estimates: - 2025E Revenue: HK$27,578.5 million (up from HK$27,022.4 million) - 2026E Revenue: HK$28,992.1 million (up from HK$28,044.8 million) - 2027E Revenue: HK$30,832.0 million (up from HK$29,953.4 million) [5] - EPS Estimates: - 2025E EPS: HK$12.97 (up from HK$12.63) - 2026E EPS: HK$13.61 (up from HK$13.05) - 2027E EPS: HK$14.45 (up from HK$13.96) [5] Valuation Metrics - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: - 2025E: 35.3 - 2026E: 33.7 - 2027E: 31.7 [5] - Return on Equity (ROE): Expected to be 29.5% in 2025E, declining to 26.5% by 2027E [5] - Dividend Payout: The dividend payout ratio is projected to remain around 90% [14] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market Discounting: The market appears to be discounting the current rise in ADT more than it did during the 2020-21 period, with uncertainty surrounding future SB flows. However, structural growth in SB participation is anticipated due to diversification and valuation discounts [3] - Target Price Adjustment: The target price has been raised to HK$544 based on a 40X CY26E P/E, indicating that the stock is trading below mid-cycle P/E levels [17] Additional Insights - Investment Income Trends: Investment income is expected to decline in the coming quarters, impacting overall profitability [1] - Market Confidence: Improved market confidence is expected to sustain the growth in ADT and SB trading activity [2] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding Hong Kong Exchanges, highlighting its financial performance, market dynamics, and future outlook.