2025-09-22 01:00Summary of the Conference Call on the Baijiu Industry Industry Overview - The overall sales volume in the baijiu industry has declined, with distributors expecting a 20%-30% drop in sales during the upcoming double festival period. Sales volume decreased by 40%-50% in July and August [1][2] - High-end baijiu wholesale prices are weak, with Feitian Moutai priced around 1,780 RMB. Demand for baijiu in banquet scenarios remains stable, while mid-range products perform more consistently [1][4] Key Points and Arguments - Sales Performance: The baijiu industry is facing significant sales pressure, with actual sales declines exceeding previous market expectations. Most regions, except for Henan, are experiencing sales drops greater than anticipated [2] - Inventory Levels: From June to August, the average sales volume decreased by 50%, leading to a slight increase in inventory levels compared to last year. Most distributors have higher inventory levels than the same period last year [3] - Price Trends: High-end baijiu products like Feitian Moutai and Wuliangye are experiencing weak wholesale prices. Feitian Moutai's price is expected to fluctuate between 1,700 and 1,800 RMB during the double festival period [4][8] - Company Performance Adjustments: Guizhou Moutai has lowered its annual growth target but maintains a steady collection rate compared to last year. Wuliangye is also expected to adjust its growth target due to market conditions [6][9] Company-Specific Insights - Guizhou Moutai: The company is increasing promotional activities for its series of products and expects a slight downward adjustment in annual growth targets, which may benefit investors by releasing risks [8] - Wuliangye: The company is shifting its focus from absolute growth to long-term competitiveness, with a return rate of approximately 60%-70% [9][10] - Luzhou Laojiao: The company is implementing a price stabilization strategy and focusing on expanding its terminal market through targeted promotions [11] - Shanxi Fenjiu: The company is facing significant sales declines but is maintaining a stable price point due to good relationships with distributors [13] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with potential for policy-driven growth and those that can adapt to market changes, such as Jiu Gui, She De, and Shui Jing Fang. Mid-range products like Gu Qing Gong and Ying Jia Gong are also highlighted for their recovery potential [5][7] - The overall sentiment is that the baijiu industry is currently at a low point, but there are opportunities for recovery and growth in specific segments and companies [27] Additional Considerations - The impact of external factors, such as government inspections and coal supply pressures, has affected consumption patterns in various regions [12][14] - The performance of next-tier baijiu products is weaker compared to high-end and mid-range products, indicating a need for careful monitoring of new product launches [21] This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends discussed in the conference call regarding the baijiu industry, highlighting both challenges and potential investment opportunities.