中国基础材料_8 月国家统计局数据_当供应中断遭遇需求疲软-China Basic Materials_ August NBS data_ When supply disruptions meet weak demand

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Basic Materials in China - Key Trends: Weakness in property indicators and slowing momentum in Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) observed in August 2025. Commodity prices for steel, coal, and lithium have rallied due to production cuts or halts [2][7][19]. Core Insights - Property Market Weakness: - New property starts decreased by 5.1% month-over-month (MoM) and 19.8% year-over-year (YoY) in August. Real estate investment hit a new low, with expectations of marginal improvement in September due to easing in tier-1 cities [2][24]. - J.P. Morgan's Property Analyst suggests that policymakers may need to consider stronger actions as data worsens, indicating potential for more policy support [2][24]. - FAI Trends: - FAI growth rate slowed to 0.5% in the first eight months of 2025, down from 1.6% in the previous seven months. Real estate investment worsened to -12.9% YoY [7][24]. - Manufacturing and infrastructure FAI also slowed, indicating continued downward pressure on domestic demand for industrial metals [7]. - Commodity Price Movements: - Copper prices have broken the US$10,000 mark, leading to upward earnings revisions for copper-related companies. The preference order for commodities is copper/gold > aluminum > steel > coal > lithium [2]. - Coal prices are expected to remain range-bound at approximately Rmb650/ton for the second half of 2025 [2]. - Steel Production: - Crude steel output in August was 77 million tons, down 0.7% MoM and 2.9% YoY. A production cut of 20-50 million tons is anticipated [8][12]. - 60% of steel mills are currently profit-making, with operating rates for blast furnaces remaining high at 84% [8]. - Aluminum Production: - Aluminum production was stable at 3.8 million tons, with exports decreasing slightly. Inventory levels are considered healthy despite an increase [19][20]. - Coal Production: - Raw coal output increased to 391 million tons in August, up 2% MoM but down 3.2% YoY. A production halt at a coal mine in Shanxi has led to a rise in coking coal futures [15][24]. - New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Production: - NEV production increased by 22.7% YoY in August, indicating a recovery in the auto sector. However, oversupply issues continue to pressure lithium prices [21]. Additional Important Insights - Market Sentiment: The spokesperson from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicated that "more efforts are needed to achieve market stabilization," suggesting that further policy support may be forthcoming [2]. - Valuation Comparisons: A detailed valuation comparison of global diversified mining companies was provided, highlighting various metrics such as PE ratios and market capitalization [27][29]. Conclusion The conference call highlighted significant challenges in the Chinese basic materials sector, particularly in real estate and FAI, while also noting some resilience in commodity prices and production in specific areas like copper and NEVs. The potential for policy intervention remains a critical factor for market stabilization moving forward.