全球策略 本轮降息周期对信贷是利好还是利空-Global Strategy Is this rate cutting cycle good or bad for credit_

Global Research Credit spreads are currently tighter, with IG spreads at 74bp. The most optimistic comparison to previous rate-cutting cycles is July 1995, which marked the beginning of such a cycle. At that time, macroeconomic and credit indicators pointed to an early-to- mid-cycle environment. Specifically, in Q2 1995, our consumer credit health gauge was neutral at +0.0, and our credit-based recession probability model indicated a low risk of recession at 4%. In contrast, as of Q3 this year, our consumer ...