中国电动汽车落后者正迎头赶上，供应链受关注-China EV Tracker EV laggards playing catch up, supply chain in focus

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - The focus is on the Electric Vehicle (EV) industry in China, highlighting the competitive landscape and supply chain dynamics [1][7]. Key Points and Arguments Market Dynamics - Consolidation Pause: The top 10 players in the EV market have seen their market share decrease to 76% in the first eight months of 2025, down from 78% in 2024, indicating a pause in industry consolidation [2][10]. - Emerging Competitors: EV laggards are gaining traction with new car launches and aggressive pricing strategies. For instance, SAIC's H5 model, priced at RMB169.8k, received over 50,000 orders within 18 hours of its launch [2][7]. Supply Chain Focus - Battery Pricing Trends: A potential turning point in battery pricing is anticipated between the second half of 2025 and the first half of 2026, with some energy storage system (ESS) battery products already showing price improvements [3][7]. - Demand Surge: Strong domestic demand for ESS batteries, following the cancellation of a mandatory storage policy, along with increasing orders from international markets, is expected to support both volume and pricing in the upcoming quarters [3][7]. Autonomous Driving Development - The development of autonomous driving technology is accelerating, with more Level 3 (L3) functions being rolled out and Level 4 (L4) Robotaxi commercialization becoming feasible due to technological advancements and supportive policies [3][7]. Stock Highlights - Preferred Suppliers: In light of weak auto demand and intense competition, the preference is for resilient suppliers over original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). Key stocks include: - CATL A/H: Strong earnings and overseas expansion outlook [4][7]. - REPT: Expected profitability turnaround in FY25 due to rising shipments and utilization [4][7]. - Horizon Robotics: Benefiting from the acceleration of autonomous driving among OEMs [4][7]. - Geely: Gaining market share in EVs with a strong product pipeline [4][7]. Market Share Insights - The EV market is characterized by a long tail of competition, with 50 brands vying for the remaining 24% of the market share [9][10]. Additional Insights - Discount Levels: The discount level for EVs in China slightly increased to 10.7% in August 2025, while ICE vehicles saw a decrease to 22.9% [27][29]. - Battery Installations: China's EV battery installations increased by 33% year-on-year in August 2025, indicating robust growth in the sector [47][49]. - LFP Market Share: Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries accounted for 82% of China's EV battery market in the first eight months of 2025 [49][52]. Conclusion - The Chinese EV market is experiencing significant shifts with emerging competitors gaining ground, a focus on supply chain improvements, and advancements in autonomous driving technology. The preference for resilient suppliers over OEMs reflects the current competitive landscape, with specific stocks highlighted for their growth potential.