亚洲内存_长期向好的内存上行周期_长期向好的内存上行周期-Asia Memory Stronger-for-longer memory upcycle_ Stronger-for-longer memory upcycle

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the memory semiconductor industry, particularly DRAM and NAND sectors, with a positive outlook on memory pricing and demand driven by AI and server applications [2][3][8]. Core Insights 1. Memory Price Outlook: - Upgrades in memory-price outlook for commodity DRAM and NAND have led to increased target prices for SK Hynix (from KRW 390k to KRW 440k) and Samsung (from KRW 88k to KRW 105k) [2]. - Anticipated server-driven DRAM price hikes are expected to persist into the first half of 2026 due to increased demand from AI processing and reduced inventory levels at DRAM and server OEM makers [2][3]. 2. Capex Growth: - Capital expenditures (capex) for chipmakers are projected to rise by 9% in 2025 and 8% in 2026, indicating a robust growth cycle amid shortages in commodity DRAM and NAND [2][4]. - Domestic semiconductor capex is expected to increase by 17% in 2025 and 8% in 2026, benefiting equipment suppliers [4][8]. 3. NAND Market Dynamics: - The demand for NAND is expected to grow due to generative AI and high-density HDD shortages, leading to a stronger NAND price trend extending to 2026 [3]. - The eSSD market is projected to grow significantly, reaching 35-40% of total NAND in the next 2-3 years, up from approximately 20% last year [3]. 4. Preferred Stocks: - SK Hynix is identified as the preferred memory stock due to its leadership in HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), with a projected sales contribution of 56% in 2026 compared to 31% in 2024 [5]. - EOT is highlighted as a key equipment supplier, with expectations for Samsung to narrow the supply gap in HBM4 by the first half of 2026 [5]. Financial Projections 1. Revenue and Operating Profit Estimates: - Revenue estimates for SK Hynix are raised to KRW 89,677 billion for 2025 and KRW 108,758 billion for 2026, with operating profit estimates increasing by 4% in 2025, 9% in 2026, and 24% in 2027 [57][69]. - DRAM revenue is projected to be KRW 70,198 billion in 2025 and KRW 84,033 billion in 2026, while NAND revenue is expected to reach KRW 19,479 billion in 2025 and KRW 24,725 billion in 2026 [57]. 2. Target Prices and Ratings: - Target prices for SK Hynix and Samsung have been raised, with SK Hynix now at KRW 440,000 and Samsung at KRW 105,000, both rated as "Buy" [2][69]. Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include KRW appreciation, global trade restrictions, and economic slowdowns that could impact consumer and enterprise IT demand [70]. Additional Insights - The conference highlighted the ongoing production issues at DRAM manufacturers and Chinese producers, which are expected to limit output growth and capacity expansion [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the AI sector in driving demand for memory products, particularly in server applications [8]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the memory semiconductor industry.