全球人工智能供应链更新；亚洲半导体的关键机遇-Greater China Semiconductors Global AI Supply Chain Updates; Key Opportunities in Asia Semis

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Greater China Semiconductors industry, particularly in the context of AI and its supply chain dynamics [1][2] - The industry view has been upgraded to Attractive for the second half of 2025, with a preference for AI semiconductors over non-AI counterparts [2][3] Core Insights and Arguments - Investment Themes for 2026: The report highlights key investment themes, emphasizing the strength of AI semiconductors and the expected re-rating of the sector as tariff and foreign exchange concerns diminish [2][6] - Top Investment Picks: - AI Semiconductors: TSMC (Top Pick), Aspeed, Alchip, MediaTek, KYEC, ASE, FOCI, Himax, ASMPT - Memory Stocks: Winbond (Top Pick), GWC, Phison, Nanya Tech, AP Memory, GigaDevice, Macronix - Non-AI Stocks: Novatek, OmniVision, Realtek, NAURA Tech, AMEC, ACMR, Silergy, SG Micro, Yangjie [6] - AI Demand Drivers: The demand for AI semiconductors is expected to accelerate due to generative AI, which is spreading across various verticals beyond the semiconductor industry [6][22] - Market Dynamics: The report notes a gradual recovery in the semiconductor market in the second half of 2025, with historical trends indicating that a decline in semiconductor inventory days is a positive signal for stock price appreciation [6][30] Additional Important Insights - China's GPU Supply: The report discusses the impact of DeepSeek on AI demand and questions whether domestic GPUs can meet this demand. It highlights that while DeepSeek is demonstrating cheaper inferencing, shipments of NVIDIA's B30 could affect the domestic GPU supply chain [6][44] - Long-term Projections: The report estimates that AI semiconductors will account for approximately 34% of TSMC's revenue by 2027, with a projected US$3-4 trillion in AI capital expenditures expected in the remainder of the decade [19][24] - Capex Growth: The top six companies in the sector are forecasted to grow their capital expenditures by 62% YoY to Rmb373 billion [47] - Market Valuation: The report includes a valuation comparison across various segments, indicating a mixed outlook for different companies based on their P/E ratios, EPS growth, and market capitalization [7][8] Conclusion - The Greater China Semiconductors industry is poised for growth, particularly in the AI segment, with significant investment opportunities identified. The dynamics of supply and demand, along with technological advancements, are expected to drive the market forward in the coming years.