当前时间点如何看风电行业持续性？

Summary of Wind Power Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The wind power industry is expected to show significant improvements in its fundamentals in 2025, with strong performance from export chains and component manufacturers in the first half of the year, and anticipated growth from domestic offshore wind and turbine companies in the second half [1][3]. Key Projections - The installed capacity for onshore wind power is projected to reach 100 GW in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 30%-40% [5][11]. - Offshore wind power capacity is expected to double to around 10 GW in 2025, indicating rapid growth in both onshore and offshore segments [5][11]. Project Reserves and Support - There is a substantial reserve of domestic offshore wind projects, including approximately 17-18 GW of projects that have been tendered but not yet started, over 20 GW that have been approved but not tendered, and 40-50 GW of competitive projects [6][9]. - Policy support for deep-sea development is expected to bolster future installations [6]. International Market Dynamics - In the first eight months of 2024, overseas Final Investment Decision (FID) projects totaled 8 GW, surpassing the total for the previous year, with 12 GW of projects under construction, up from 10 GW last year [7][8]. - The European market, particularly the UK, France, and Germany, has significantly contributed to these figures, despite challenges in the US market [7][8]. Catalysts for Growth - Key catalysts for industry growth in the second half of 2024 include: 1. A robust tender reserve of approximately 160-170 GW for 2024, with about 60-70 GW of projects yet to be constructed [12]. 2. Favorable economic conditions for wind power, with internal rates of return (IRR) remaining attractive for investors [12]. 3. Strong order books for major turbine manufacturers, with orders increasing by over 10% compared to the end of 2024 [12][15]. Investment Recommendations - The wind power sector is currently viewed as a strong investment opportunity, with expectations of accelerated performance across the entire industry chain in the second half of 2024 [14]. - It is recommended to focus on leading companies in sub-sectors such as submarine cables, piles, turbines, and components to capitalize on the upcoming growth cycle [14]. Long-term Outlook - The medium to long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations of continued high growth in both domestic and international markets, supported by large-scale project reserves and favorable policies [9][10]. - By 2026, global installed capacity is projected to reach 10 GW or more, indicating more than double the growth compared to previous years [9]. Conclusion - The wind power industry is poised for significant growth, driven by strong fundamentals, substantial project reserves, and favorable market conditions both domestically and internationally. Investors are encouraged to consider strategic allocations in this sector to leverage upcoming opportunities.