中美博弈的走向

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the China-U.S. trade relations and its implications on various industries, including technology, pharmaceuticals, and manufacturing. Core Points and Arguments 1. Current Status of China-U.S. Relations The relationship is described as being in a prolonged stalemate, characterized by frequent communication but no significant improvements. The situation is compared to an L-shaped bottom, indicating a stable yet tense environment [4][7]. 2. Negotiation Rounds in 2025 Four rounds of negotiations have taken place in 2025, with significant adjustments to tariffs. Initially, tariffs were as high as 145%, which were negotiated down to 54% through various discussions [5][6]. 3. Tariff Levels and Future Adjustments Current tariffs are approximately 50%, with potential for a 10%-15% reduction in the future, primarily influenced by fentanyl control measures. However, no significant changes are expected within the year [2][11]. 4. TikTok Agreement The TikTok agreement involves a technical licensing model where Oracle manages data without the sale of core algorithms, ensuring a balance of interests between the U.S. and China [2][12]. 5. Impact of U.S. Tariff Policies on Companies The Trump administration has adopted flexible strategies towards companies like Apple, allowing for temporary tariff exemptions in exchange for investment commitments. Apple has begun shifting some production to India to mitigate supply chain risks [2][15][23]. 6. Agreements Between the U.S. and Europe Agreements have been reached between the U.S. and Europe regarding tariffs on automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, which may indirectly benefit China by allowing it to export pharmaceuticals through the EU [2][16]. 7. Fentanyl Control Discrepancies There are significant differences between the U.S. and China regarding the control of fentanyl precursors, with China advocating for a more focused approach rather than a blanket control [8]. 8. Market Expectations for Negotiation Outcomes The market is skeptical about achieving substantial tariff reductions in the short term, with high tariffs expected to persist [9][10]. 9. Future of U.S.-China Pharmaceutical Cooperation Potential administrative orders may limit cooperation between U.S. pharmaceutical companies and Chinese firms, with a predicted reduction in collaboration by about 50% [18]. 10. China's Export Outlook China's exports are expected to perform well overall in 2025, despite a significant decline in exports to the U.S. due to tariffs, with a projected decrease of 20%-30% [25]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. Potential for U.S.-EU Coordinated Action There is a low probability of the U.S. unilaterally imposing stimulus tariffs on China, as the EU has not agreed to such measures [24]. 2. NDAA and Biopharmaceutical Legislation The likelihood of biopharmaceutical legislation being included in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) is low, with significant resistance expected [19]. 3. Impact of Tariffs on Global Supply Chains The tariffs have prompted companies to reconsider their manufacturing locations, with a trend towards relocating production to countries like India and Vietnam [23]. 4. Future of Nvidia's Chip Offerings Nvidia is contemplating offering a new version of its chips to the Chinese market, pending government approval, to enhance its competitive position [3][21][22].