全球大宗商品_是时候重新审视波动率套利策略了，最严重的关税和地缘政治冲击可能已过去Global Commodities_ Time to revisit volatility carry strategies with the worst tariff and geopolitical shocks possibly behind us

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on Global Commodities, particularly the volatility carry strategies in the commodities market, as the worst tariff and geopolitical shocks are believed to be behind us [1][2][22]. Core Insights and Arguments - Volatility Carry Strategies: There are opportunities in commodities volatility carry QIS (Quantitative Investment Strategies) as volatility premia are expected to recover. This is attributed to a structural imbalance between volatility buying and selling in commodities compared to other asset classes [2][10]. - Market Conditions: The current macro backdrop is seen as favorable for volatility carry strategies, with expectations of a shift into a "Goldilocks" regime, which historically has led to better performance for commodities volatility carry strategies [5][26]. - Performance of Strategies: Volatility carry strategies have faced challenges in 2025 due to negative volatility premia caused by tariff and geopolitical shocks, but there is optimism for recovery as these shocks subside [4][24]. - Specific Commodity Considerations: - Oil: Brent has historically higher volatility premia than WTI due to geopolitical risks and hedging activities [31]. - Gold: Weekly options have shown better performance than monthly options due to increased liquidity and demand for short-term optionality [41][36]. - Copper: The market is expected to stabilize following tariff clarity, which should benefit volatility carry strategies [44]. Additional Important Content - Quantitative Research Findings: The quant research team has confirmed the continuation of a "Normal" macro regime, with potential for a shift to "Goldilocks," which is favorable for commodities volatility carry strategies [5][26]. - Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, and US sanctions on Russian oil are noted as risks that could impact crude oil volatility [23]. - Seasonality in Curve Carry Strategies: Curve carry strategies have been highlighted as top performers among major commodities QIS YTD, with expectations for continued positive returns into Q4 due to strong seasonal trends [7][48]. Data and Figures - Volatility Dashboard: The report includes a dashboard showing the current implied and realized volatility levels across various commodities, indicating a return to positive volatility premia for most major commodities [11][19]. - Historical Performance: Historical data suggests that volatility carry strategies tend to perform better under stable macro conditions, with significant underperformance during periods of heightened uncertainty, such as the GFC and COVID-19 pandemic [15][24]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook for the commodities market and volatility carry strategies.