投资者调整美元配置，但大方向未变-Global EM Strategist-Investors Remix USD but the Track Is Unchanged

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on Emerging Markets (EM) and the US Dollar (USD) positioning, with a particular emphasis on local markets and sovereign credit strategies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Mixed Sentiment on USD: Investor views on the USD have become more two-way, reflecting a growing belief that the US economy is gaining momentum, leading to mixed positioning on the USD [1][11][25]. 2. Bullish Outlook for EM Local Markets: Despite the mixed sentiment on the USD, the bullish outlook for EM local markets remains intact, supported by stable fundamentals and a favorable risk backdrop [1][11][27]. 3. Attractive Bond Opportunities: The report highlights 10-year and BB bonds as particularly attractive, suggesting rolling EM CDX hedges while maintaining a lower spread beta versus the index [3][57]. 4. Chile's Pre-Election Sentiment: Investor sentiment ahead of Chile's upcoming election is constructive, with expectations that long-end CAM/SOFR spreads will widen regardless of the election outcome [4][58]. 5. Remittance Trends in LatAm: Current high levels of remittances into Latin America are expected to decline due to tightening US immigration policies and a weakening US labor market by 2026, impacting sovereign credit in countries like El Salvador, Guatemala, and the Dominican Republic [5][69]. 6. US Economic Recovery Indicators: Factors supporting the view of a US economic recovery include improved financial conditions, payroll revisions, and resilient retail sales, with real GDP growth tracking at 2.2% [26][25]. 7. Fed Policy Implications: The Federal Reserve's stance is crucial; a dovish approach could lead to further USD weakness, which has been a key driver for EM local market performance [27][36]. 8. Sovereign Credit Strategy Adjustments: Recommendations include turning neutral on the Dominican Republic, selling Panama bonds, and preferring Nigeria over Kenya due to fiscal risks [56][43]. Additional Important Insights 1. Technical Positioning: The improved technical position in EM markets supports a constructive outlook, with fundamentals remaining stable [11][27]. 2. Investor Caution: Despite the favorable backdrop, many investors remain cautious about valuations, indicating a potential for further market adjustments [3][57]. 3. Emerging Market Flows: Moderate foreign buying of EM local currency bonds continues, with cumulative flows showing a positive trend [31][34]. 4. CDS and Bond Valuations: CDS spreads are generally in line with bonds, with the longer end of the curve offering better value, suggesting that investors have been overly cautious [41][68]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and outlook of the EM market and USD positioning.