半导体资本设备_2025 年第三季度中期晶圆厂设备（WFE）更新，基准情景更接近乐观情景-Semiconductor Capital Equipment-Mid 3Q'25 WFE Update, Base Case closer to Bull Case

Summary of Semiconductor Capital Equipment Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Semiconductor Capital Equipment industry, particularly in North America. - The 2026 Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE) market forecast has been revised from a growth of 5% to 10%, with the new forecast set at $128 billion compared to the previous $122 billion [1][4]. Key Companies Discussed 1. Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) - Upgraded to Overweight (OW) with a new price target of $209 from $172. - CY26 EPS forecast raised from $9.58 to $10.45. - AMAT is expected to benefit significantly from DRAM growth, with a 3:1 bull:bear skew in its favor [3][24][28]. 2. Lam Research Corp (LAM) - Upgraded to Equal-weight (EW) with a new price target of $125 from $92. - CY26 EPS forecast increased from $5.12 to $5.43. - Despite a positive outlook, LAM is expected to underperform WFE growth slightly [3][25][35]. 3. KLA Corp (KLA) - Downgraded to Equal-weight (EW) with a new price target of $1,093 from $928. - CY26 EPS forecast raised from $37.11 to $39.03. - KLA's valuation is at a 30% premium compared to AMAT and LAM, making further premium expansion difficult [3][26][40]. Core Insights - Memory Market Dynamics: - The memory WFE forecast has been adjusted, with DRAM expected to reach $34.9 billion in 2026, reflecting an 18% increase year-over-year, and NAND projected at $13.8 billion, a 35% increase [9][13]. - Improved pricing conditions in both DRAM and NAND have been noted, with significant orders from hyperscalers driving demand [10][11]. - Investment Trends: - There is a shift in capital expenditure (capex) priorities towards DRAM, which may delay NAND capex improvements [2][17]. - The overall sentiment in the semiconductor capital equipment sector is cautiously optimistic, with risks skewed to the upside if major players like Intel and Samsung accelerate their foundry investments [2][11]. Additional Important Points - Market Forecasts: - The WFE revenue is expected to grow from $117.171 billion in 2025 to $128.304 billion in 2026, with a projected growth rate of 10% [6]. - The semiconductor revenue is forecasted to increase from $736.304 billion in 2025 to $809.193 billion in 2026 [6]. - Regional Insights: - North America is projected to contribute $12.830 billion to the WFE market in 2026, maintaining a steady growth trajectory [8]. - Valuation Metrics: - AMAT currently trades at 18x CY26 MSe, while LAM and KLA trade at 23x and 27x, respectively, indicating a valuation discount for AMAT that is expected to narrow as DRAM growth accelerates [28][32]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, highlighting the revised forecasts, company-specific insights, and broader industry trends.