中国房地产-对第四季度的一些思考-China Property -Some Thoughts into 4Q

Summary of the Conference Call on China Property Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the China Property industry, particularly the outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025 and the performance of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) versus Private-Owned Enterprises (POEs) in the sector [2][4][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Muted Nationwide Policy: - The expectation is that meaningful nationwide housing stimulus will remain muted in 4Q 2025 due to several factors: - Recent home price declines have been steady but less severe compared to the period before the 2024 housing stimulus [4][10]. - No new risk points have emerged from weakened property sales [4]. - The property sector's role in driving GDP growth has diminished [4]. - Housing is unlikely to be a focus in the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session [4]. 2. Weak Physical Market Anticipated: - The market has priced in deeper year-on-year declines in property sales for 4Q based on: - High-frequency data indicating wider year-on-year declines [5]. - Continued deterioration in secondary listing prices and volumes [5]. - Marginal easing in tier 1 cities [5]. - An escalating base effect due to easing measures in September of the previous year [5]. - Any better-than-expected performance from individual developers could be seen as an upside surprise [5]. 3. Stock Recommendations: - The call suggests accumulating positions in quality SOEs, particularly CR Land and C&D, which are expected to outperform due to their strong sales potential amid margin recovery [6][10][11]. - Caution is advised regarding POEs, as their older and depleting landbanks may negatively impact sales and earnings [6]. 4. Long-term and Tactical Stock Ideas: - CR Land (1109.HK): Expected business transformation and potential upward revisions on mall rentals [11]. - C&D (1908.HK): Anticipated strong launches of high-margin projects leading to a projected earnings CAGR of over 15% from 2024 to 2027 [11]. - Tactical plays include COLI (0688.HK), Jinmao (0817.HK), and Yuexiu, which are seen as fundamental beneficiaries due to their below-peer price-to-book ratios [11][12]. 5. Consumption Beneficiary: - CR Mixc (1209.HK) is highlighted for its positive same-store sales growth and improving cash collection, which enhances dividend visibility [12]. Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious outlook for the property market, with expectations of continued challenges in the near term [4][5]. - The call emphasizes the importance of selecting quality SOEs for potential investment, given the anticipated market pull-back [6][10]. - Analysts express a belief that the current environment may present a good entry point for investors looking for quality assets in the property sector [2][6]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call regarding the China Property industry, focusing on the anticipated market conditions and stock performance outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025.