全球经济评论：关税规避程度几何-Global Economics Comment_ How Much Tariff Evasion_ (Briggs_Peters)

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the impact of tariff evasion on the U.S. economy, particularly concerning the tariffs imposed during the Trump administration, specifically the 2018-2019 tariffs and the recent tariffs on transshipped goods [2][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - Tariff Evasion Estimates: Evasion of tariffs through trade rerouting, underreporting, and mislabeling has led to a significant reduction in U.S. tariff revenue, estimated at around $15 billion annually [2][3]. - Impact of New Tariffs: The introduction of a 40% tariff on transshipped goods and the establishment of a Trade Fraud Task Force aim to limit tariff evasion, although early signs indicate some evasion is still occurring [3][4]. - Trade Data Analysis: Recent data suggests an increase in goods routed from China to the U.S. via third-party countries, particularly Vietnam, with a simultaneous increase in imports and exports by $6 billion since the start of the year [6][8]. - Underreporting of Imports: There is evidence that foreign exporters are underreporting the value of U.S. imports, with a reported discrepancy of $4 billion widening since the beginning of the year [17][19]. - Potential Revenue Loss: If historical patterns of evasion continue, over $200 billion in U.S. imports could be affected, leading to a potential loss of $40 billion in tariff revenue annually [25][26]. Additional Important Insights - Supply Chain Shifts: The recent increases in tariffs are accelerating shifts in supply chains out of China, as indicated by a rise in foreign direct investment (FDI) into Vietnam [6][7]. - Correlation in Trade Data: The correlation between Vietnamese imports from China and exports to the U.S. has increased, suggesting potential rerouting to avoid tariffs [12][13]. - Unit Price Manipulation: Some multinational companies may be lowering reported import prices to evade tariffs, which could lead to lower reported profits abroad and higher profits for U.S. subsidiaries [19][22]. - Regulatory Changes: The removal of the "de minimis" exemption for low-value packages from China is expected to narrow reporting discrepancies, potentially affecting trade statistics [18]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call regarding tariff evasion and its implications for the U.S. economy and trade dynamics.