中国基础材料监测（2025 年 9 月）：需求稳定与持续供应扰动支撑定价及利润前景-China Basic Materials Monitor_ September 2025_ Steady demand and ongoing supply disruption support pricing_margin outlook

Summary of China Basic Materials Monitor - September 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China Basic Materials industry, highlighting the current demand and supply dynamics affecting pricing and margins in various sectors including construction, automotive, and metals [1][2]. Key Points Demand Trends - End-user orderbooks have shown a month-over-month (MoM) increase as of mid-September, consistent with seasonal patterns observed in previous years [1]. - Aggregated demand is driven by positive growth in sectors such as automotive, battery production, and metal fabrication, alongside mild seasonal increases in construction [1]. - Traditional sectors like white goods, property, and machinery are experiencing weaker demand [1]. Supply Disruptions - Ongoing supply disruptions are noted, particularly in: - Lithium Lepidolite production - A correction in excess coal production - Tightness in domestic copper scrap supply [1]. - The Chinese government has reaffirmed its policy on supply management (anti-involution) as a long-term strategy, which is expected to support overall commodity pricing and margins [1]. Pricing and Margin Outlook - Current demand for cement and construction steel is reported to be 1-6% lower year-over-year (YoY), while copper and aluminium demand is down 5-7% YoY. In contrast, flat steel demand has increased by 3% YoY [1]. - Recent weeks have seen improvements in margins/pricing for aluminium and copper, while steel, coal, and lithium prices have softened, with cement prices remaining stable [1]. Producer Feedback - A proprietary survey indicates that 52% of respondents in downstream sectors reported an improvement in orderbook trends for August, while 32% of basic materials producers noted similar improvements [2]. - Conversely, 9% of downstream respondents and 16% of basic materials producers indicated a decline in orderbook trends [2]. Additional Insights - The report includes detailed snapshots of downstream demand across various sectors, including infrastructure, property, traditional manufacturing, advanced manufacturing, and exports [7]. - Specific commodity analyses cover steel, coal, cement, aluminium, copper, and lithium, providing insights into their respective demand and pricing trends [7]. Conclusion - The China Basic Materials industry is currently experiencing a complex interplay of steady demand growth in certain sectors and ongoing supply disruptions, which collectively influence pricing and margin expectations. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing supply and pricing dynamics [1][2].