美元熊市格局的必然性-The USD Bear Regime Necessities

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Company/Industry Involved - Company: Morgan Stanley - Industry: Foreign Exchange (FX) Strategy Core Points and Arguments 1. USD Bear Regime: The Federal Reserve's shift in reaction function indicates a prolonged USD bear regime, leading to a significant and broad sell-off of the USD [7][10][11] 2. Expansion of USD Sell List: The USD sell list has been expanded to include AUD (Australian Dollar) and CAD (Canadian Dollar), in addition to existing recommendations for EUR/USD and USD/JPY [7][18] 3. Market Dynamics: The current market dynamics show falling real rates and widening breakevens, contributing to widespread USD weakness [7][10][11] 4. Impact of US Government Shutdown: A potential US government shutdown is expected to be negative for the USD, with the extent of the impact depending on the Fed's perceived reaction [7][35][36] 5. Carry Trade Considerations: The carry trade remains a significant headwind for USD shorts, but market expectations suggest a decrease in the DXY's carry by nearly 100 basis points over the next 12 months, which would support USD shorts [7][19][29] 6. Performance of Currencies: Historical data indicates that currencies tend to strengthen against the USD 67-84% of the time during a USD bear regime [12][16] 7. Trade Recommendations: Specific trade ideas include maintaining long positions in EUR/USD, GBP/CHF, and AUD/USD, while shorting USD/JPY and USD/CAD [21][22] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. Fed's Focus on Employment: The Fed's current focus on employment over inflation suggests a longer duration of the USD bear regime, as market participants may expect a more significant response to labor market changes [11][17] 2. Risk Premium from Government Shutdown: The estimated risk premium for the USD due to a government shutdown is currently around -4%, indicating a potential increase in USD-negative sentiment [33][36] 3. Long-term Catalysts for AUD and CAD: Local factors such as RBA policies and FX-hedging flows are identified as long-term catalysts for AUD, while CAD is expected to decline due to its sensitivity to rate differentials and productivity boosts from trade barrier removals [22][19] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, focusing on the implications of the USD bear regime and the strategic recommendations provided by Morgan Stanley's FX strategy team.