专家分享：氨纶行业现状与展望

Summary of the Spandex Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The spandex industry is currently facing overcapacity, with an expected addition of approximately 700,000 tons from 2021 to 2025, while demand growth has not kept pace, leading to prices dropping to historical lows below 5,000 yuan compared to pre-supply-side reform levels in 2016 [1][3][20] - Global spandex capacity is projected to grow at an average rate of nearly 10% during the 14th Five-Year Plan, reaching 1.93 million tons by the end of 2025, with China accounting for 80% of global supply [1][4] - The industry concentration has significantly increased to 79%-80%, although competition remains fierce [1][6] Key Insights and Arguments - The spandex industry's cash flow is marginally declining, currently operating below the breakeven line [1] - In 2022, the industry's operating rate was the lowest in recent years at 76%, with a slight recovery to around 81% in the first eight months of 2025 [1][9] - Average inventory levels have decreased from approximately 50 days to about 45 days, but the destocking process is slow [10][22] - The expected spandex production for 2025 is 1.1 million tons, representing a year-on-year growth of about 5% [11] Demand Trends - Demand for spandex is projected to show slight growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a forecasted decline to around 8% in 2025, driven mainly by products like masks, protective clothing, and homewear [12] - The export volume of spandex increased by 10.3% year-on-year to 56,000 tons in the first eight months of 2025, although the average export price has decreased [17] Price Dynamics - Spandex prices have fallen from a peak of 78,500 yuan per ton in August 2021 to approximately 23,000 yuan per ton, which is only one-third of the peak price [2] - The price of spandex is currently at historical lows, with significant fluctuations observed due to market conditions and supply-demand imbalances [20] Capacity Expansion and Competition - Major companies like Huafeng Chemical and Xiaoxin are actively expanding their capacities, with Huafeng adding 30,000 tons in the first half of 2025 and planning further expansions [5][23] - The industry is seeing a trend towards vertical integration, with many spandex manufacturers extending into upstream production areas like BDO [25][26] Challenges and Risks - The industry is experiencing a significant number of companies facing financial difficulties, leading to production halts and potential exits from the market [31][33] - The competition for market share is intense, with companies often resorting to pricing strategies to attract new customers [8] Future Outlook - The spandex industry is expected to face continued challenges with overcapacity and fluctuating demand, leading to a cautious outlook for future growth [27] - The anticipated production capacity growth rate is expected to slow down to around 5% during the 15th Five-Year Plan, with potential for further consolidation in the industry [28] Conclusion - The spandex industry is at a critical juncture, with significant overcapacity, declining prices, and intense competition. Companies must navigate these challenges while seeking opportunities for growth through innovation and strategic expansions.