Pangang (SZ:000629)2025-09-26 02:29Summary of Titanium Dioxide Industry Update and Future Outlook Industry Overview - The titanium dioxide (TiO2) industry is primarily influenced by supply and demand dynamics, with a notable price rebound expected in early 2025 due to declining operating rates in Q4 2024. [1][2] - Despite a slight price increase in September, the overall prices remain at a low level for the year, with many manufacturers facing losses or marginal profits due to high costs. [1][4] - China's titanium dioxide industry is set for significant expansion, with an expected increase of 450,000 tons in effective capacity by 2025 and an additional 380,000 tons by 2026, potentially exceeding 7 million tons in total capacity. [1][5] Key Points on Price Trends - Titanium dioxide prices are projected to experience fluctuations, with an initial rise followed by a decline due to increased production and supply exceeding demand by April 2025. [2][20] - The price drop from the highest to the lowest point this year is approximately 20%, with current prices still near the lowest levels. [4] - Short-term prospects indicate limited potential for further price declines unless upstream raw material costs decrease significantly. [4] Capacity and Production Insights - Current effective capacity in the titanium dioxide industry is expected to reach 6.5 million tons in 2025, up from 6.05 million tons in 2024. [6] - Major contributors to the new capacity include Guizhou Shengweifuqian (80,000 tons), Panzhihua Taikai Technology (60,000 tons), and Inner Mongolia Dadi Yuntian (100,000 tons). [6][7] - The industry has seen minimal permanent exits, with only Jinan Yuxing Chemical declaring bankruptcy, while many companies have opted for production cuts or temporary shutdowns. [8][10] Market Challenges and Responses - The market is facing pressures from overcapacity, weak demand, and anti-dumping policies affecting exports, particularly to India and Brazil. [2][21] - Approximately 360,000 tons of capacity from smaller firms may exit the market due to ongoing losses and lack of competitive advantage. [10] - The Chinese titanium dioxide industry is adapting to global trade changes by seeking new markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, compensating for losses in traditional markets. [22] Future Outlook - The global titanium dioxide demand is expected to remain stable in 2025 compared to 2024, with potential growth driven by economic adjustments and increased demand in emerging markets. [16] - The price of titanium dioxide is anticipated to reach a turning point between late 2026 and early 2027, as the market undergoes adjustments and inefficient capacities are phased out. [20] - The anti-dumping policies imposed by the EU, India, and Brazil are expected to have a long-term negative impact on Chinese exports, but structural adjustments may help mitigate these effects. [21][23] Conclusion - The titanium dioxide industry is navigating a complex landscape of supply-demand dynamics, pricing pressures, and geopolitical challenges. The anticipated capacity expansions in China and strategic market adjustments may position the industry for recovery and growth in the coming years. [1][5][22]