历史上白酒如何走出调整期

Summary of the White Liquor Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The white liquor industry has experienced several adjustment cycles over the past 30 years, influenced by various economic and policy factors [2][9]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Historical Adjustment Cycles: - The industry faced four major adjustment periods: - 1999-2003 due to the Asian financial crisis and deflation - 2008-2009 due to the global financial crisis, with economic growth dropping from 14.2% in 2007 to single digits - 2012-2015 impacted by "Three Public Consumption" restrictions and the liquor plasticizer incident, leading to over 40% reduction in mid-to-high-end demand - 2018 faced challenges from trade wars and deleveraging policies [2][3] 2. Recovery from the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis: - The recovery was primarily driven by policy catalysts that stimulated economic growth, with a notable 100% increase in the white liquor index from November 2008 to August 2009 [3][4]. 3. Comparison of Past and Current Conditions: - The current macroeconomic environment in 2025 differs significantly from historical periods, making direct comparisons inappropriate. The second quarter of 2025 showed signs of inventory clearance and potential bottoming out [3][6]. 4. Investment Opportunities: - The industry is currently in a phase of inventory reduction, with expectations of reaching a bottom by the end of 2025. Investors are advised to monitor macroeconomic policies, inventory changes, and improvements in company fundamentals [3][11]. 5. Impact of External Factors: - The 2018 trade war and deleveraging led to economic pressures, but timely fiscal policies restored market confidence, leading to a new bull market starting in 2019 [5][6]. 6. Performance in Early 2019: - In early 2019, credit data exceeded expectations, and the consumption environment improved, contributing to a significant rise in the white liquor index, which nearly doubled despite no substantial improvement in earnings [7][8]. 7. Cyclical Characteristics: - The white liquor industry is characterized as a cyclical sector, with recoveries dependent on overall economic conditions. Historical policy shifts often signal upcoming economic turning points [9][10]. 8. Stock Price and Earnings Relationship: - Stock price recoveries typically precede earnings recoveries, suggesting that investors should focus on macroeconomic indicators rather than waiting for actual sales data to make investment decisions [10]. 9. Current Market Sentiment: - The industry is currently in a phase of both report and channel inventory reduction, with potential buying opportunities emerging. However, the overall sales situation remains weak, necessitating close monitoring of key sales periods such as the Mid-Autumn Festival and the 2026 Spring Festival [11][12].