长存长鑫新一轮扩产，供应链投资解读

Summary of Conference Call on Semiconductor Industry and Companies Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry in China is experiencing accelerated domestic substitution due to U.S. sanctions, particularly in non-lithography and testing equipment, leading to increased domestic production rates and alleviating capacity expansion bottlenecks [1][2][5] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions have resulted in a shift in chip origin recognition, benefiting domestic fabs like SMIC and Hua Hong with high utilization rates, outperforming other regions [1][4] Key Companies Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) and ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) - Both companies are preparing for IPOs, with capacity expansion plans exceeding initial expectations, although there is a slight year-on-year decline [1][9] - YMTC is expected to upgrade its FAB 3 by 2026, increasing layer counts to over 300 and achieving a domestic production rate of 60%-80%, which is favorable for equipment suppliers [1][9][10] - CXMT anticipates an expansion of 60 billion USD in equipment procurement needs, with a focus on advanced packaging and AI computing growth opportunities [1][11] Investment Opportunities - The semiconductor sector presents significant investment potential, particularly in domestic substitution and the Huawei supply chain, focusing on 3D packaging, advanced processes, and advanced packaging [1][6] - The demand for SSDs and HBM is rapidly increasing, driving expansion in both YMTC and CXMT [3][11] - Key investment areas include equipment (lithography and testing), materials (masking, gases, and wet chemicals), and the overall domestic substitution space [7][8] Trends and Challenges - The storage industry is witnessing a trend of accelerated expansion in advanced processes and storage, while mature logic and power sectors may slow down [3][12] - China accounts for approximately one-third of global chip demand, but its advanced process and storage capacity have not yet reached this level, necessitating significant future expansion [12] - Challenges include the need for increased domestic production rates in critical areas such as etching, thin film deposition, and ion implantation [12] Notable Companies and Recommendations - Companies to watch include: - Microchip Technology: Benefiting from high aspect ratio etching and PECVD equipment [13] - Tsinghua Unigroup: Expected to see order doubling due to high elasticity [13] - Anji Technology and Kema Technology: Notable for their key component validation results [13] - The overall outlook for the semiconductor industry remains optimistic, with expectations for continued expansion in upstream equipment and materials sectors [13][14]