中国股票策略：黄金周前 A 股市场情绪保持平稳-China Equity Strategy-A-Share Sentiment Remained Flat Ahead of Golden Week

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the A-share market in China, particularly in the context of investor sentiment and macroeconomic conditions leading up to the National Day Golden Week holiday [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - Market Sentiment: A-share investor sentiment remained flat, with the Weighted and Simple Morgan Stanley A-share Sentiment Indicator (MSASI) declining by 2 percentage points to 125% and 1 percentage point to 119%, respectively [2][7]. - Trading Activity: Average Daily Turnover (ADT) for A-shares increased by 4% to RMB 2,484 billion, while ChiNext turnover decreased by 1% to RMB 650 billion [2][4]. - Net Inflows: Southbound trading saw net inflows of USD 5 billion from September 18-24, with year-to-date and month-to-date net inflows reaching USD 142 billion and USD 17.2 billion, respectively [3]. - Macroeconomic Conditions: Domestic demand has slowed more than expected due to a fading fiscal impulse and reduced effectiveness of trade-in programs. The 3Q GDP tracking estimate is 4.5% year-on-year, down from 5.3% in the first half of the year [4][5]. - Policy Outlook: Anticipation of modest stimulus measures in Q4 2025, likely focused on infrastructure projects and settling local government payables [4][5]. - Earnings Forecast: The consensus earnings growth forecast for 2025 is just 2%, the lowest in years excluding the COVID period, indicating fragile actual earnings growth despite better earnings results [15]. Additional Important Insights - Valuation: China's equity market remains attractive compared to other major markets, with MSCI China trading at 13x [12]. - US-China Relations: The relationship appears to be stabilizing, with recent developments such as the TikTok deal providing positive signals [15]. - Upcoming Events: The Fourth Plenary Session could serve as a catalyst for policy changes aimed at rebalancing growth and stimulating domestic demand, although its impact may be limited due to the high-level nature of discussions [15]. - Investor Behavior: Investors are likely to hold more cash ahead of the extended trading break, especially following recent market rallies [4]. Conclusion - The A-share market sentiment is expected to fluctuate within a wider range due to slower macro momentum and upcoming holidays. While there are signs of stabilization and potential modest stimulus, the overall outlook remains cautious with fragile earnings growth and a need for careful monitoring of macroeconomic indicators and investor behavior [4][5][15].