全球存储市场：存储 “饥饿游戏” 开启；数据中心计算需求火爆，驱动四年上行周期-Global Memory Market-Memory ‘hunger game’ begins; datacenter compute demand on fire, driving four-year upcycle

Summary of J.P. Morgan Global Memory Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Global Memory Market, particularly the semiconductor sector, highlighting the increasing demand for memory driven by data center compute needs and the AI boom [3][38]. Key Insights 1. Memory Market Growth: - The memory Total Addressable Market (TAM) is expected to grow by 6%-24%, reaching approximately $300 billion by FY27E, primarily driven by High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and new applications like SOCAMM2 and GDDR7 [3][38]. - The DRAM pricing upcycle is anticipated to last from 2024 to 2027, marking an unprecedented four-year cycle [3][55]. 2. High Bandwidth Memory (HBM): - HBM value share is projected to account for 43% of the DRAM market by 2027 [3][55]. - The blended HBM Average Selling Price (ASP) is expected to rise in FY26E, supported by a 35% pricing premium for HBM4 [3][39]. - HBM TAM is forecasted to reach $90 billion by FY27E, with a tight supply-demand balance expected throughout the year [3][39]. 3. NAND Market Dynamics: - NAND pricing is expected to increase by 7% in FY26E due to recovering demand and HDD shortages [4][40]. - The transition from HDD to eSSD is becoming more prevalent, particularly for AI applications, which is expected to drive NAND demand [4][40]. 4. Capex and Capacity Expansion: - Memory capital expenditures (capex) are projected to rise by 7%-12% in FY26-27E to meet increasing demand [5][41]. - DRAM capacity expansion is prioritized over NAND due to better economic prospects associated with HBM [5][41]. 5. Stock Performance and Valuation: - Memory stocks have surged, with the top three memory makers valued at $734 billion in 2025E, with potential upside to $1 trillion based on historical trading multiples [6][54]. - Current stock valuations are seen as slightly above forward-looking revenue, indicating potential for further growth [6][54]. 6. AI Demand Impact: - AI applications are expected to represent over 50% of DRAM TAM by 2027E, with HBM being a significant contributor [28][38]. - The demand for memory is broadening across all applications, necessitating upgrades to lower latency and more efficient memory solutions [8][38]. Additional Considerations - The memory market is experiencing a structural shift due to the increasing importance of HBM and AI applications, which may not align with historical memory cycle patterns [55]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with companies like SK Hynix (SKH) positioned favorably for HBM4 qualifications, while SEC and Micron (MU) are expected to compete for market share [3][56]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the J.P. Morgan conference call regarding the global memory market, emphasizing growth prospects, pricing dynamics, and the impact of AI on memory demand.