算力：怎么看算力的天花板与持续性

Summary of AI Computing Power Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the AI computing power industry, highlighting its growth potential compared to traditional telecommunications sectors like 4G and 5G [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Exponential Growth and Scalability - AI computing power is driven by a data flywheel effect, with token usage increasing exponentially. For instance, the Open Router platform saw a 28-fold increase in token calls within a year, contrasting with a mere 60% growth in mobile internet traffic over a decade [1][3]. 2. Shorter Investment Return Period - AI computing power offers a shorter investment return period compared to 4G/5G, which typically requires 8-10 years to recoup costs due to upfront capital investments. In contrast, AI operates on a usage-based billing model, allowing for quicker cash recovery [1][3][9]. 3. Faster Hardware Iteration - The iteration cycle for AI hardware and software is 12-18 months, faster than the 18-24 months for traditional telecom equipment. This rapid iteration reduces unit computing costs and fosters new demand, leading to higher generational value re-pricing [1][5][11]. 4. Market Concentration and Profitability - The AI hardware industry is characterized by a concentrated supply chain, with a few upstream companies holding significant market power and profit margins. Leading firms leverage economies of scale and high-end products to enhance profitability, unlike telecom equipment, which faces buyer power and regulatory pressures [1][5][13]. 5. Incremental Value Creation - AI computing power creates new incremental value through innovative technologies and applications. For example, OpenAI's new POS feature shifts AI from passive applications to actively empowering users, a capability not achievable with traditional technologies [1][6]. 6. Untapped Application Potential - Many potential applications in AI remain underdeveloped, such as various intelligent services and automated processes. As technology advances and applications become more widespread, new scenarios will emerge, further driving market demand [1][6]. 7. Flywheel Effect - The interconnection between models, data, and applications creates a self-reinforcing flywheel mechanism. Continuous upgrades, such as Google's Gemini 2.5 and GPT iterations, enhance user engagement and open new scenarios, accelerating ecosystem development [1][7]. 8. Comparison with 4G/5G Investment Recovery - The lengthy investment recovery period for 4G/5G is attributed to substantial initial capital requirements for infrastructure, such as base station construction and spectrum auctions. For example, Germany's 2019 5G spectrum auction totaled $6.55 billion [8]. 9. AI Technology's Quick Return on Investment - AI technology's return on investment is quicker due to lower initial costs and the ability to monetize through cloud services. For instance, NVIDIA's H100 GPU costs around $30,000, with a payback period of about 400 days [9][10]. 10. Market Performance and Demand Growth - The rapid iteration of AI technology does not diminish demand; rather, it fuels it. For example, Google's Genie 3 model requires 5.2 million tokens for generating a one-minute 360-degree video, indicating a sustained need for high bandwidth and computing power [12]. 11. Stability of AI Hardware Supply Chain - The AI hardware supply chain is more stable and favorable compared to traditional telecom chains. The GPU market is dominated by NVIDIA, while other solutions like ASICs are emerging, contributing to a more stable pricing and competitive environment [13]. 12. Positive Trends in AI Computing Demand - In the first half of 2025, overseas demand for AI computing power is expected to rise, with leading companies in optical modules and PCBs showing increasing profit margins despite normal price declines [14]. 13. Future Development Potential - The AI computing market's growth potential is significantly higher than other tech sectors. Its ability to create societal value suggests that the ceiling for growth is not yet visible, making it one of the most promising areas for investment despite current high valuations [15].