氟化工：制冷剂主升进行时，AI液冷再蓄势

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Refrigerant Industry Industry Overview - The refrigerant industry is currently under strict global policy control due to high CO2 emissions associated with refrigerants, leading to significant greenhouse effects. This has resulted in supply-side restrictions globally [2][31]. - China dominates the global supply of refrigerants, accounting for over 80% of total demand, with a supply cap set at 1.85 billion tons of CO2 equivalent based on average usage from 2020 to 2022 [1][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - The transition to a quota system in 2024 will shift the industry strategy from market share maximization to profit maximization, avoiding price wars and enhancing overall market performance [1][9]. - The upgrade from third-generation to fourth-generation refrigerants is facing challenges, as existing products often represent compromises in safety and efficiency [1][10]. - The 2025 quota policy will increase the total quota to 280,000 tons, reflecting strong market demand, with prices for key products like R32 and R125 expected to continue rising [12][14]. Market Dynamics - The refrigerant market is characterized by high concentration, with leading companies controlling approximately 90% of the market share for major products like R32 and R134a [3][14]. - Liquid cooling technology is emerging as a new application area, driving demand for refrigerants, with leading domestic companies actively investing in related businesses [3][37]. Price Trends and Future Expectations - Historical price trends show a significant increase in refrigerant prices, with R32 rising from 13,000 to 62,000 CNY over two years, indicating a long-term upward trend without extreme volatility [16][40]. - The current market sentiment suggests that the refrigerant industry has not yet reached its peak, with potential for further price increases as demand continues to grow [43][47]. Challenges and Opportunities - The industry faces challenges in developing and applying alternative refrigerants, with existing substitutes like YF facing regulatory scrutiny and compatibility issues [11][23]. - The global quota system is expected to stabilize the industry, providing a framework for sustainable growth and reducing cyclical volatility [26][42]. Conclusion - The refrigerant industry is positioned for growth, driven by increasing demand in various sectors, including air conditioning and automotive applications. The strategic shift towards profit maximization and the implementation of quota systems are likely to enhance market stability and profitability for leading companies [21][47].